Looks Interesting For Tuesday Afternoon/Night

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Once again, the rains were widespread across the state over the course of the weekend and everyone received at least some moisture out of that system.  However, as you can see on the two day rainfall totals, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, some locations received a lot more than others and in some cases those examples are relatively close to one another.  Just goes to show how capricious our Spring time storm systems can be with regard to where the heaviest rains fall.

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Same story over the course of the last 10 days as you can see on this next map, also courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  Once again, everyone has picked up at least some rainfall, but there is a big difference from one county to the next in some cases.  At least this recent, relatively wet period we have enjoyed has gone a long way in reducing the fire danger and there are currently no burn bans in effect in Green Country.

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We have another good chance for some decent rains later Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the next storm system is moving quickly this way.  In fact, it is moving in so quickly that it is very questionable regarding the depth and quality of moisture return by then.  Notice the storm zone for tomorrow is pretty well centered over our part of the state and the dynamics are certainly supportive of severe storms with all modes possible.  However, the instability which is at least partially dependent on the quality and depth of the low level moisture appears to be a limitation.  The latest/greatest data runs suggest the most likely time frame for storms to be developing will be near or just after the 4 PM time frame with rapid development through the rest of the afternoon/evening hours and the storms quickly moving on eastward that night. 

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More about that in a moment, but first for tonight generally fair overnight skies and a light N breeze should result in overnight lows near the 50 degree mark.  Our winds will quickly become more E during the morning hours and SE to S during the afternoon and becoming gusty.  Clouds will be on the increase, but afternoon temperatures should still make it to near the 80 degree mark for a daytime high.  But, the depth and quality of the low level moisture still looks to be a limitation regarding the amount of instability for storms to feed on.  Even so, advise being very weather aware for the afternoon through the early night time hours as those strong dynamics could be enough anyway.

At any rate, one again some locations could pick up locally heavy rainfall while nearby locations receive very little.  Notice the 1-3 day QPF and the more northern counties and into KS obviously have the best chance for some heavier rainfall totals from this system.

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Wednesday will be on the backside with a few lingering morning showers possible and skies gradually clearing later in the day.  As you can see on our forecast page, strong NW winds will certainly keep us much cooler and that will be followed by some very cool mornings for Thu/Fri.  Right now, Friday morning looks to be the coldest with 30s possible and the potential for frost or even a light freeze, particularly in the normally colder valley locations.

A return to gusty southerly winds will provide a quick rebound in temperatures through the weekend with daytime highs likely at or above 80 and much warmer nights as well.  Another storm system will be coming our way late in the weekend with a chance of showers and storms, some possibly severe.

In fact, the 6-10 day outlook keeps us with an above normal chance of additional precipitation so perhaps those of us who have missed out on the heavier recent rainfall will have the opportunity to catch up over the next week or two.

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In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.  It certainly could get interesting on Tuesday.

Dick Faurot