We’re tracking a few showers and storms this morning across the region but the coverage remains very sparse. I’ll venture to say (or write) that most folks will miss out on precip today and remain dry. A cold front entered the state yesterday and is now positioned to our south. We’ll be on the cool side of the boundary today with northeast winds and highs in the upper 50's to lower 60's northern Oklahoma and slightly higher across southeastern Oklahoma. A series of strong upper level systems will bring storm chances into the state, beginning Friday. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. This active weather pattern may continue for the next two weeks.
The upper air flow will bring our first system into the central plains Thursday night and Friday morning. In response, our front, currently south, will move northward later tonight into Thursday morning as a warm front. A few spotty showers or storms may occur during this process, but the chance will remain low and mostly to the northwest of our area of concern. Strong south winds will develop Thursday in the range of 20 to 35 mph, with higher gusts likely across central and western Oklahoma, as the pressure gradient tightens across the southern U.S.
Friday morning a sharp dry line will quickly develop across western Oklahoma and march eastward through the early to mid-morning hours. Storms will attempt to develop across north Texas into south-central Oklahoma by early to late morning and then quickly form a line of thunderstorm activity by early afternoon and evening, along and east of the I-35 corridor. The dynamic energy is high with this system, but the available instability and low level moisture is expected to remain rather low. If moisture was deeper in the atmosphere the severe weather threats would be much higher. Regardless, a few strong to severe storms may occur, with damaging winds and hail the main threats. Some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible.
The upper level system may be stacked above the ejecting surface low Saturday morning across far northeastern Oklahoma. If this is the case, a few low topped storms will be possible, a few hail reports would be possible. The GFS is leading the cause, but the EURO is more northward with the features and would keep most precip across southeastern Kansas. Close call. At this point, we’re keeping a mention in the forecast for Saturday morning.
We’ll get a break Saturday midday to Sunday before the next fast moving wave nears the state Sunday night. Another surface low will quickly develop across western Oklahoma and eject into the NE third by pre-dawn Monday. The quick return of low level moisture combined with this strong system will increase the severe potential. The next system will also quickly develop next Tuesday night into Wednesday with another threat of strong to severe storms.
Welcome to spring in Oklahoma.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a great day!