It’s another chilly morning across northern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas with temperatures in the mid to upper 20's in the valleys and into the lower 30's across most of Tulsa County. We’re anticipating slightly warmer afternoon highs today compared to the past two days, but our readings will continue to be below average today with highs in the lower to mid-50's.
We finally make a move into the upper 60's and lower 70's Thursday with some folks nearing the lower 80's Sunday into early next week. We are tracking a few storm chances for the next few days, but the overall impact will remain very low. A stronger upper level system, and consequently a stronger surface low, will be nearing the state by the middle of next week with increasing severe weather potential. This morning, another fast-moving wave is traversing the northwest flow and may produce a sprinkle or flurry in spots across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. The odds are very low, but I’ll mention the possibility for a few hours this morning.
A surface ridge of high pressure will move eastward today allowing northeast surface winds to back from the southeast by midday to afternoon around 10 to 15 mph. This may not sound like a huge accomplishment but it will be a signal that warming air will be arriving soon across eastern Oklahoma. Low level moisture, in the form of higher dew point temps, will begin slowly moving northward later tonight and should be entering southern Oklahoma early Thursday morning. As the process occurs, some drizzle may develop across a few areas of southeastern or east central Oklahoma. I don’t think this will be widespread across the area, but we’ll keep a low pop in the forecast. Temps Thursday morning will be in the mid to upper 40's with highs nearing 70.
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Friday a surface cold front will near northern Oklahoma by midday to afternoon and continue to slowly advance southward through the day. A few storms will attempt to develop, scattered in nature, across eastern and southeastern Oklahoma. The coverage is expected to remain very low, but we’re keeping a 30-percent chance at this point, mainly due to the consistency in our previous forecasts. There is very little upper level support with this system and the threat for any significant severe weather will remain very low. A strong storm or two may produce some marginally severe weather across far southeastern Oklahoma Friday night, but the odds will be low. This front will move across north Texas and stall Saturday morning with pleasant weather persisting across eastern Oklahoma during the day. Our highs will be in the 70's Saturday along with north winds and some sunshine.
Sunday the front the south will begin lifting northward as a warm front, or it may totally become diffuse and reform to our north by Sunday afternoon. I tend to favor the later scenario. This will bring south winds back to the area quickly along with highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's. Monday, another fast moving upper level disturbance will brush the central plains and could bring a few storms into the state Monday night or Tuesday morning as a front slowly sinks into northern Oklahoma and stalls as a stronger upper level trough begins influencing the western U.S. This scenario for the middle of next week is a common springtime pattern that brings severe weather to the plains, and may influence part of the plains by late next week with storms.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day.