Chance Showers/Storms Tuesday, Some Potentially Severe

After a cold start this morning, we experienced a big rebound this afternoon as you can see on the max/min temperature map across the state, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  Our normal diurnal temperature range at this time of year is 57/35 for Tulsa, and today we were 67/32 for the max/min or a 35 degree spread. 

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Also, the colder conditions of the weekend have knocked our standing with respect to the warmest February on record down a notch or two.  But, since we will start the last day of the month possibly setting a record for warmest overnight low and will be close to the record for the afternoon high, that will push us up to 2nd place for warmest February ever by the end of the day tomorrow.

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As you can see on our forecast page, we will not be cooling off much tonight with brisk southerly winds and mostly cloudy skies keeping temperatures from dropping much below the 60 degree mark, if at all.  As mentioned that is in record setting territory to start the day Tuesday and with gusty southerly winds all day our afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80.  The record for the date is 82 so we may be just shy of that, but still a mighty warm day for February.

Our next cold front will be arriving after midnight Tuesday night and will bring with it a chance of showers and storms, some of which could be severe.  In fact, it is a very Spring-like setup with strong winds at the surface and aloft and very warm, humid air in place.  However, the surface features suggest the best combination of instability and convergence will likely be over far E OK and on into Arkansas and eastward from there.  Notice the storm zone for Tuesday and as you can see the better chances for storms will be further east.  Look for some of those storms to be forming during the afternoon/evening hours and quickly moving on eastward tomorrow night.

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By Wednesday morning, the cold front will have pushed across the state bringing gusty NW winds and another cool-down.  It will also bring much drier air back over us so we will have lots of sunshine to finish out the rest of the week.  The cooler, drier air will allow temperatures to fall back to at or below the freezing mark to start the day on Thursday and nearly that cold for Friday morning before another rebound takes place in time for the coming weekend.  Gusty southerly winds returning for the weekend will push temperatures much above normal once again and moisture will also be increasing producing more cloud cover.  But, our chances of rain look to be minimal with possibly a few showers early next week.  As you can see on the 7 day QPF, we remain on the western edge of the better moisture and most of that will be with any showers or storms that can develop tomorrow.

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Looking further down the road into March, the 8-14 day outlook continues to suggest temperatures will average above normal here in Green Country.  Also, our chances for any additional moisture of consequence continues to be below normal for that time period as well.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot