Tracking Storm Chances For Eastern Oklahoma

We're looking at a couple of chances for showers and storms over the next 48 hours with the first wave arriving this morning into the evening and the 2nd wave having the better chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms across far eastern OK Tuesday into Tuesday night.   The Tulsa metro will be on the far western side of the 2nd system but we'll need to keep a chance due to the dynamics and possibility of the activity near the area.   After the 2nd wave passes the area Tuesday afternoon and evening, it appears we'll be in the clear for a few days, including the weekend.   Temps will be mild today and warm tomorrow before some slightly cooler air will arrive Wednesday and Thursday.   

WARN Interactive Radar

The weekend has been rather cool with temps remaining well below the seasonal averages.   Temps this morning will start in the 40's and end with highs in the mid to upper 60's along with increasing clouds.   A warm front developed last night across north TX and is lifting northward this morning.   A few showers or storms will attempt to form along and ahead of the boundary this morning but the odds will remain rather low.   We'll stay on the side for most locations but only for the next few hours.   Later today a stronger upper level trough will be nearing the state and winds will increase from the south and warmer air will expand northward tonight and Tuesday morning where a few storms may develop from far eastern OK into western Arkansas.  This chance will remain around 20 to 30% and could produce some hail with stronger cells. 

Weather Alerts

The warm sector is expected to move north of the metro Tuesday morning to midday with highs moving into the mid or upper 70's by afternoon and even warmer air possible across central and western OK.    As the strong upper level trough arrives, storms will attempt to develop Tuesday afternoon and early evening across eastern OK and western Arkansas.   While the number of storms may remain low, any storms that do develop would be severe.   The surface wind low does not appear to have major convergence and a layer of warm-air aloft may suppress some activity.  But the dynamics with the system are rather stout and a conditional threat of all modes of severe weather will be carried for Tuesday afternoon and evening across far eastern OK and western Arkansas.  

Late Tuesday night into pre-dawn Wednesday, a front will side across the state from the west to east and storms will attempt to developed along the boundary.   This activity may be more of a few line segments of storms, but could also be severe.   Again, the threat is rather conditional for most of eastern Ok with the higher chances along the Oklahoma-Arkansas state line area.  

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Temps Wednesday morning will be in the 40's with highs in the mid to upper 50's.   Thursday morning lows in the 30s will be followed by highs in the lower 60's.   Friday morning, the lows will be near 30 and highs near the upper 60's.   This weekend appears mild and dry with lows in the 40s Saturday and into the 50's Sunday.   The higher will be in the upper 60's Saturday and the lower to mid-70's Sunday. 

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog, 

Have a super great day. 

Alan Crone