After Setting Records Today, Back to the Real World.

We did it; not only broke the record daytime high temperature this afternoon but started the day by tying the record for the warmest overnight low on this date.  So far today the numbers are 86/55 for the max/min and the respective records were 81 in 1982 and 55 in 2000.  In comparison, the normal values are 56/34.  Records were broken at other locations as well as you can see on the map.

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The statewide map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, shows how warm it was across the entire state today.

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These extremely warm temperatures have now pushed the month of Feb to date into top place with regard to warmest on record and we are also now leading the pack with respect to the warmest year to date.  That will all be changing tonight though as a strong cold front will arrive after midnight bringing much cooler, more seasonal air back into the state.

By Friday morning we will have a gusty NW wind of 15-20 mph or more and temperatures in the low-mid 40s which is still warmer than normal but those winds will make it feel rather chilly.  Despite lots of sunshine, daytime temperatures will only reach the mid 50s along with gusty NW winds all day.  The cooler temperatures will result in somewhat higher humidity levels but the strength of the winds will still result in fire danger concerns throughout the day.

Clear skies and light winds will lead to a hard freeze Saturday morning with temperatures likely dropping into the mid-upper 20s.  That will be the first time we have had a freeze since back on Feb 9; quite a stretch of above freezing temperatures for the month of February and that has certainly contributed to the vegetation starting to green up. 

Sunny skies and a lighter NW breeze during the day Saturday should result in afternoon highs near 50.  As you can see on our forecast page, Sunday will also get off to a cold start but a return to southerly winds will moderate temperatures during the day and we should be back above normal that afternoon.  Clouds will also be on the increase during the day as a system aloft will be moving across the state Sunday night. 

The longer range guidance continues to have major differences with regard to how wet that system will be for us.  The GFS is very wet and the Euro is much drier.  Given the fact that the system of interest is currently in the Pacific as you can see on the map, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the strength and intensity of that system.  Keep in mind, this is of the 500 mb level or about 18,000’ above sea level and the colors represent where the strongest winds are. 

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With that in mind, will take a more conservative approach with the rain chances and emphasize the more southern counties with the best chance of rain and perhaps even some storms.  This system should be ejecting rather quickly with only a few lingering showers for the far E/SE counties to start the day on Monday.

That should leave Monday as a transition day as our next, stronger system and associated cold front still looks to be arriving Tuesday night.  So, Monday will be warmer than normal once again and gusty southerly winds for Tuesday will give us another very warm day.  Not likely to set any records but the month will certainly end on a very warm note Tuesday.  There will also be a chance of showers/storms Tuesday night as the next cold front pushes across the state, but moisture availability is a big question mark there.  For now, will go with just a slight chance of showers/storms but that may well change.

That will be followed by another cool-down for the middle of the week, but that should also be short-lived as the 8-14 day outlook for that first week of March continues to suggest temperatures will average above normal here in Green Country.  Our chances for any additional moisture of consequence continues to be below normal for that time period as well.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot