Warm With Increasing Fire Danger Across Oklahoma

Spring like weather will remain today with some record high temps across the state before a cold front arrives later tonight bringing cooler air Friday and colder air Saturday to the state.   Any showers or storms later tonight with the front should be confined to far northeastern OK or points to the northeast.   The big issue today will be the strong south winds, low afternoon humidity, high temps and the increasing fire danger across eastern OK.   While Red Flag warning criteria may not be technically met across all of the area this afternoon, our friends at the National weather service may hoist the warning anyway due to the potential for rapid wild fire spread.   We’ll track at least two waves over the next 7 days with a chance for scattered storms.   Depending upon the timing and moisture return, a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

WARN Interactive Radar

Temps are in the mid-50's this morning across the metro with slightly cooler air to the northwest and warming air to the southeast.   South winds will rapidly increase across the area as the pressure gradient deepens as a powerful storm system ejects across the central plains this morning and into the upper Midwest this afternoon.   Our neighbors across the central plains will see heavy snow while folks ahead of the system will experience a round of severe storms this afternoon and tonight across the Midwest to the Great Lakes.    We’ll experience the tail end of the system with winds changing direction later tonight from the northwest helping to bring cooler air into the state Friday.   Lows will start in the 30's and 40's and end with highs in the mid to upper 50s north and lower 60's south.   Model data continue to support much colder air surging southward sometime Friday or Friday night into Saturday with morning lows below freezing and highs in the upper 40's north and lower 50's south.   North winds will remain Friday into Saturday and a fire danger may continue to persist Friday post frontal with gusty winds and very dry air.

Weather Alerts

Sunday the next wave will be nearing the area and we do have some differences in the model data.   At this point we’ll continue with a chance of storms Sunday night into Monday as the warm sector begins expanding northward across the state.   Low level moisture will stream back across the Red River valley as the winds increase from the south.   This will create a favorable location for storms across the southern and central OK area by Sunday evening according to the GFS.   A few of the storms could be strong to near severe.  The EURO is slightly slower with this next wave and consequently would allow the warm sector to expand more northward late Sunday night into Monday morning.   This could be a slightly higher chance of strong to severe storms across part of northeastern OK late Sunday night or pre-dawn Monday.   We still have a few days to work on this scenario.   But for now, our current forecast will hold with a chance of storms late Sunday night into Monday morning.  

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Monday this warm sector will be expanding into the central plains with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s while the next wave nears the state.    Additional storms are likely to develop Tuesday across part of the state but the available moisture content will be rather low.   

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone