Storms Tonight with More Spring Warmth to Come

If it weren’t for the calendar, we’d all be convinced it was at least the month of March, if not April. In accordance with our unseasonably mild weather comes a storm system tonight resembling one in our spring season. This means heavy thunderstorms are likely tonight for at least part of the area and a limited risk of a severe storm or two.  Here’s the breakdown of this threat.

[img]

                The main energy for this system is located well overhead of Texas and thus, the better dynamics and instability are located further south. However, a band of storms will continue to be brought northward in the flow and expand into our region as early as 10pm. Given the linear nature of these storms, tornadoes are not a risk for us. However, a few high wind gusts and some hail are possible as these push into our area through midnight. A gradual weakening trend is expected from there as the complex continues to push through Green Country. Therefore, it’s a very small window for anything too severe, mainly confined to areas south and west of Tulsa. Below, you’ll see a computer model depiction of the storms by midnight.

[img]

                If you’re in the Tulsa area, showers may occur this evening, but the main storm complex may not arrive until the wee hours of Monday morning. Expect a good lightning show with any storms that push into the area. This means your alarm may not be the only thing waking you up. The complex will taper off to a broad area of rain by morning that gradually shifts east of the metro area by midday. A little sunshine is even possible by afternoon as rain ends near the Arkansas border. Once the rain is over, most areas will have at least a quarter-inch in their gauges. Some spots may see locally 1” to 2”, especially further west of the Tulsa area as shown below.

[img]

                This storm system is detached from the main polar jet stream, which will keep any colder air locked up to the north. That means our spring-like warmth continues this week. In fact, it will gradually get a bit warmer during the day each day until a cold front arrives by Friday. I expect the trees will continue to take this as a cue to continue their unseasonably early budding process.

                As we continue to dry out, warm up and feel the wind pick up, the risk turns yet again to wildfires. Wednesday and Thursday will be two days where the risk goes up for any fires to spread quickly out of control.  Please avoid burning midweek, even if you don’t have a Burn Ban officially in place for your county.

                Our late-week cold front will likely slide by our region without any appreciable rainfall given the lack of surface convergence. Temperatures drop back to normal for a few days into next weekend, which will feel quite chilly compared to where we’ve been. However, as has been the case for the winter, a fast-moving jet stream from west-to-east will swing winds back to the south and warm us up a bit going into the final days of the month.

                February may close as one of our warmest on record and likely void of any significant wintry weather. March could be different. It does appear the jet stream will shift further south for the start of the new month, which could promote colder air mixing with any storm system in our area. However, that is certainly no guarantee of snow and the outlook to 14 days from now shows a continued warmer than normal pattern for eastern Oklahoma as shown below.

[img]

                If you like spring weather, this is an ideal end to the month of February. Snow lovers, don’t give up hope just yet. We’ve still got a few more viable weeks for something wintry beyond the range of our immediate forecast. In the meantime, let’s hope for a good soaking rain to continue to curtail our drought.

                For more weather updates, be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and like my Facebook Page.