Cooler Wednesday, Chilly Start to Thanksgiving Day.

Gusty southerly winds and cloudy skies have certainly kept temperatures on the mild side today; so far, the max/min has been 66/56 here in Tulsa.  But, that is about to change as a cold front is currently moving into NW OK as you can see on the 3 hour temperature change map as of late this afternoon.  By the way, our state is certainly blessed to have such a rich data source as the OK Mesonet and the good folks that work there.  Anyway, that drop in temperature is headed toward Green country and the actual cold front will be moving through overnight and be well east of the state by sunrise Wednesday.  Brisk southerly winds ahead of the front will initially shift to a more W and then NW direction as the cold front moves through a given area.

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There will also be a chance of showers and perhaps even some thunder for early tonight as the front moves through.  The higher resolution data runs from late this afternoon suggest a narrow line of rain/thunder along and ahead of the actual frontal boundary.  But, they will be fast moving and the only threat will be the possibility of locally strong winds.  Unfortunately, the rapid movement also means not much in the way of rainfall as you can see on the 2 day QPF map.

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Although not a very wet system, it will certainly cool us off tomorrow with brisk NW winds for much of the day calming down by sunset.  Also, some wrap around cloud cover will keep us with mostly cloudy skies through the morning hours which should be gradually clearing during the afternoon followed by fair skies for the evening and overnight hours.  As a result of the clouds and brisk NW winds, temperatures will start the day in the mid-upper 40s, but not warming too much with afternoon highs in the mid-upper 50s.

Light winds, clear skies, and cool, dry air in place will give a chilly start to Thanksgiving Day.  Morning lows will be in the 30s but southerly winds will pick up that afternoon and along with lots of sunshine should push afternoon temperatures into the 60s.  Just how warm will depend on how much high level cirrus cloud cover moves in as some of the data runs are suggesting enough of a cirrus deck to hold temperatures down a few degrees.

Another wind shift/cool front will arrive Thursday night with NW winds and somewhat cooler conditions for Friday into the day Saturday.  This will be a dry system and the return to southerly winds on Saturday will result in another warm-up for that afternoon and through the day Sunday as you can see on our forecast page.

Sunday could be more interesting due to strong southerly winds in advance of a stronger cold front that will be pushing across the state that night.  There is expected to be more moisture available by then for this system to work with so we are bringing the shower/storm chances up for late Sunday into Sunday night.  However, the 7 day QPF map is still not overly optimistic about our receiving some decent rainfall, but that is certainly subject to change.  At least we can hope as we do need the moisture.

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Early next week then looks to be on the chilly side, but actually pretty close to normal levels.  By then, our normal diurnal temperature range is mid 50s during the day and mid 30s at night.

After that, the 8-14 day outlook is finally suggesting a pattern change.  Instead of the warmer than normal levels which dominated recent months, we will be trending closer to normal and perhaps even below normal. 

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This pattern change should also bring with it more unsettled weather with better chances of precipitation.  As mentioned before, we certainly need the moisture.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot