Records Possible Next Few Days.

Hard to believe Thanksgiving is a little over one week away as temperatures will be threatening record warm levels over the next few days.  In fact, we were just a few degrees short of a record today as the afternoon high topped out at 77 and the record for today is 82.  By the way, the normal temperature range for today is 61/40 and our low this morning was 44.

Tonight will see another quick cool down with clear skies, light winds, and dry air in place.  Look for morning lows to be generally in the mid-upper 40s but the sunny skies on Wednesday together with increasing southerly winds will push our daytime highs to around the 80 degree mark.  The record for Wednesday is 83 so it will be close.  Not only that, but southerly winds gusting to around 20 mph and relative humidity levels dropping to near 30% during the heat of the day will also result in an enhanced fire danger situation.

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The fire danger will be even more of an issue on Thursday as those southerly winds will be blowing at 30 mph with gusts to near 40 likely along with daytime highs once again near 80.  Increasing high level cirrus cloud cover may limit the warm-up to a certain extent.  The record for Thursday is 80 so it will be close once again and not only that but we may set a record warm low that morning as temperatures to start the day will be near 60. 

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Then everything changes on Friday as a strong cold front will be pushing across the state Thursday night and should be moving through the more eastern counties by sunrise on Friday.  There will be a chance of showers/storms along and ahead of the front, but that will be most likely for the more eastern counties and on into Arkansas.  In fact, as you can see on the 3 day QPF, what little rain does fall from this system is expected to be well to the east.

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However, this system will bring much cooler air back into the state with temperatures likely to be warmest during the overnight hours before the front arrives.  Gusty NW winds following frontal passage will bring the cooler, drier air over us so that temperatures will likely be dropping into the lower 50s that afternoon after being in the 60s ahead of the boundary. 

Depending on how quickly the winds settle down Friday night will have a lot to do with whether or not we have a widespread freeze on Saturday morning.  Right now, the data suggests there will be enough of a breeze to keep things from totally bottoming out, but temperatures will still be close to the freezing mark.  Sunny skies, northerly winds, and afternoon temperatures in the 50s on Saturday should then be followed by a widespread freeze on Sunday morning.

A quick return to southerly winds will moderate temperatures nicely on Monday as you can see on our forecast page.  That will be followed by a disturbance moving quickly through to bring more clouds and chances of rain for the Tue/Wed time frame.  The current data runs now suggest this will be a progressive system and should be well east of the state for Thanksgiving Day.  That would mean very a very pleasant weather day on Thanksgiving with fair to partly cloudy skies and temperatures likely a bit warmer than normal.  As stated before, the normal values for Thanksgiving Day this year is 57/36 and right now would expect afternoon temperatures to be in the low 60s so just a bit warmer than normal. 

In fact, above normal temperatures still look to be the general rule beyond that time frame as the 8-14 day outlook keeps us in the warmer than normal category.  Unfortunately, it also keeps us in the dry category and we do need moisture.

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Dick Faurot