Extremely Warm October, November Already Setting Records.

Over the last several days, we have mentioned that the month of October was on track to end up being the 5th warmest on record for Tulsa.  That is exactly what happened and the average temperature turned out to be 6.7 degrees above normal.  Statewide, the month was the 4th warmest on record, according to the good folks at the OK Mesonet.

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And those warm temperatures have extended into November as we started the month this morning by tying the record for the warmest overnight low with a minimum temperature of only 67.  We had enough cloud cover this afternoon to keep our daytime high to ‘only’ 82 which is within 3 degrees of the record.  By the way, the normal max/min temperature range for this time of year is 68/46.  Here are the max/min temperatures across the state for this first day of November; again extremely warm for this time of year.

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Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy overnight skies along with a continued SE breeze means we will not cool off much tonight either and in fact, we are forecasting a record start to the day on Tuesday.  Morning lows are not expected to get much below 70 and a gusty south wind will push daytime highs back to near the 80 degree mark under mostly cloudy skies.  By the way, the average first freeze of the fall season normally occurs on Nov 2; obviously that is not going to occur this time around.

Could even see a few spotty showers at any time during the day, but the better chance is still expected to be later that night. That is when our next cool front will be pushing across the state with the front not expected to reach most of Green Country till the late night hours.  There will be a decent chance of showers/storms along the actual frontal boundary for Wednesday night followed by slowly clearing skies from N-S on Thursday.  Temperatures will still be very mild to start the day with morning lows around 60 but brisk northerly winds will bring cooler, drier in during the course of the day so afternoon highs will only be near 70.

The cooler, drier air will finally result in more seasonal temperatures for the Fri/Sat time frame with morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs around 70.  Winds will be rather light and eventually returning to a more SE direction by later Saturday or Sunday.  That will start to warm things back up until the next front comes our way early next week with another chance of showers/storms as you can see on our forecast page. 

Despite these fronts moving through, they do not look to be particularly good rainmakers for us as you can see on the 7 day QPF map.  Notice most of us will be lucky to receive more than ½” of rain from these systems.

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After that, there is still no indication of a significant pattern change so above normal temperatures look to persist into the 8-14 day time period as well, at least for most of OK.  This would suggest daytime highs generally in the 70s as our normal highs by then are in the mid 60s.  Our chances of rain during that period are not very optimistic either with below normal chances of precipitation during that period as well, at least for Green Country.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot