Turning Much Cooler Wednesday Along With A Chance Of Rain.

Hard to believe that just a few days ago, the high temperature for the day was only 68 as we managed to make it to 85 today.  Not a record by any means as 90s are pretty much the standard for Tulsa in that regard, but still very warm for this time of year.  By comparison, 75/52 is normal for Tulsa and here are the numbers recorded at the Mesonet sites around the state for today as you can see on the map.  Notice some of our western neighbors made it into the 90s this afternoon.

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That will all be changing during the day Wednesday as a rather strong cool front will be pushing through the state from N-S during the day.  Brisk southerly winds will continue through the night tonight and into the morning hours in advance of the front which will keep temperatures from dropping much.  Look for morning lows to be well into the 60s to start the day and rising into the 70s and even 80s as the day wears on and before the front arrives.  However, gusty northerly winds behind the front will be followed by falling temperatures as the much cooler air moves in. 

That means the timing of frontal passage will play a big role in how warm a particular location gets as the cooler air and gusty northerly winds should push temperatures into the 50s for the northern counties by late afternoon.  For the Tulsa metro area, frontal passage looks to be around the Noon hour, give or take an hour or so, and the SW winds ahead of the front should have pushed temperatures well into the 70s before the front arrives and drops temperatures into the lower 60s or even upper 50s by late in the day.  More southern locations will likely be in the 80s that afternoon before the cooler air makes it down there.

NE winds on Thursday and mostly cloudy skies will make this the coolest day of the forecast cycle with afternoon highs only in the 60s after starting off that morning in the 40s.  However, this cool down will be short-lived as our winds return to a SE direction Friday and brisk southerly winds will be the general rule for the weekend and through Monday of next week.  As you can see on our forecast page, this will bring about another big temperature swing with 80s back in the forecast for the weekend and we could be pushing 90 on Monday.  If so, that could threaten the record high for Monday.

As for our rain chances, the front arriving Wednesday does not have overly favorable conditions for widespread showers or storms.  There will be a chance tonight and again first thing in the morning in advance of the front as well as for the more eastern counties later in the day, another slight chance during the day Thursday, but the best chance still looks to be Thursday night.  However, the latest/greatest data runs have backed off somewhat on the Thursday night system and are keeping most of that moisture further south.  At any rate, any lingering showers or storms will be ending Friday morning and we should be dry by that evening for Friday night football. 

Another weak system aloft looks to move over the state Saturday night, but only a very slight chance of a few showers are currently anticipated from that system. After that, another weak front looks to be arriving along about Tuesday of next week but current data suggests little or no chance of rain with that system. Notice the 7 day QPF now suggests some decent rains may occur over the more southern counties but in general this pattern does not look to be particularly wet.

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Also, that next front on Tuesday does not look particularly cool and it may not even bring temperatures back down to the normal category.  This is supported by the 8-14 day outlook which continues to suggest above normal temperatures through that period.  That would most likely translate to daytime highs holding around 80 and overnight lows well into the 50s or perhaps even low 60s.   The longer range guidance has also backed off on its precipitation signal with at best near normal chances of showers or thunder.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot