A few crisp, cool mornings and a tinge of yellow in some of our leaves are signs that true fall weather is setting up shop in the state. However, the forecast for the week ahead will not convince you that it’s actually mid-October. A warmer-than-normal pattern will continue to suspend us in this late summer/early fall realm… a seasonal limbo if you will. For those of you wanting cool fall weather to be here consistently, your patience may be running thin with Mother Nature. For those of us who enjoy the warmth, then this is our prime time to soak it all up before it’s a distant memory.
Speaking earlier of those crisp, cool mornings, on Saturday, Tulsa dipped to a seasonal low of 42°. That’s a nice reminder that our average first freeze date is just a few weeks away. The outer reaches of the Panhandle have already gone below freezing, which is common for that land of extremes. We average our first freeze on November 2nd in Tulsa. The map below shows the average date of 32° or colder based on Mesonet readings. Of course, the way this season has been going, we may have to wait clear until Thanksgiving before frost covers our ground (which has happened before).
Active weather returns to Green Country midday Wednesday. After a brief warm-up on Tuesday into the 80s, a cold front will put the warm pattern on hold for a few days. That front is moisture-starved, so it’s not likely to provide substantial or widespread showers. However, a passing downpour is possible, especially northeast of Tulsa that day as temperatures take a tumble into the 60s by late afternoon.
That frontal boundary won’t stray too far. It will be lifting back to the north on Thursday night in response to another upper-level wave of energy. That wave will bring a better focus for rain and storms to our region, starting Thursday afternoon (as it appears at this point). With better moisture recovery in our region, rainfall amounts could be locally heavy. This will be an off and on rain event likely into Friday morning before tapering off that afternoon, just in time for the Friday night football games. It’s much-needed rain as some areas likely see an inch or more of water in drought-stricken areas.
The unseasonable warmth races back in just in time for the weekend. Both high and low temperatures may run up to 15° above normal, resembling temperatures around Labor Day. A few fast-moving storm systems may try to bring us some passing showers or storms into next week, but the cold air is held at bay for some time. It’ll take a big dip in the jet stream over the central or eastern U.S. to usher in Canadian air to our region for another stair step down into a cooler pattern. Below, you’ll see the outlook for much above normal weather for the majority of the country as we head later into the month.
Enjoy the warmth and much-needed rain this week. We’re just over a month out from when winter weather sometimes pays us our first visit. Or, for our Game of Thrones fans, “Winter is coming!” Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook page for more weather updates!