Storms Tonight Then Much Cooler

Big changes are coming our way over the next 24 hours as a cold front will be pushing across the state tonight followed by gusty northerly winds and much cooler conditions.  This front will also bring with it widespread showers/storms for tonight, some of which may be locally severe with primarily a wind/hail threat.  There could also be brief periods of heavy rainfall, but since the system is expected to be progressive then a repeat of last night is not expected.

Notice the 24 hour rainfall totals as of late this afternoon from the OK Mesonet which clearly shows way too much for some and none at all for many others.  Those storms persisted in developing and moving over the same locations over a period of several hours, thus the heavy rainfall totals and flooding problems.  Another inch or so of rain looks to be a good bet for most of us tonight, and some of that will fall in a short period of time.  But, since the front itself will be moving steadily along then the storms along the front will not be moving repeatedly over the same locations and that should reduce the threat of any serious flooding issues such as occurred last night.  As far as timing, the leading edge of the activity should be reaching the Tulsa metro area around the 11-12 time frame, give or take an hour or so.  Obviously, it would be earlier for locations to the NW and later in the night for locations to the SE.

[img]

Some lingering light showers will be possible for the first hours of Friday morning but that activity will be ending from N-S as the morning wears on followed by clearing skies from N-S by afternoon.  Gusty northerly winds behind the cool front will also bring much cooler air back over the state.  Morning lows will be in the 50s and holding in the 50s until the skies start clearing that afternoon.  We should have enough sunshine during the afternoon to counteract those gusty northerly winds and push afternoon temperatures back into the 60s. For today, the max/min here in Tulsa has been 89/74, normal values are 76/54.  So, way above normal today and way below normal for Friday afternoon.

[img]

After that, it is basically a temperature forecast as you can see on our forecast page.  Clear skies and lighter winds will allow for good radiational cooling Friday night and Saturday night with overnight lows in the 40s.  Saturday morning in particular looks to be the coldest and the cooler valleys in NE OK could see some 30s by then. 

Our winds will be returning to a more southerly direction for much of next week which will allow temperatures to warm back up to above normal levels.  Meanwhile, the flow aloft will be primarily in a zonal pattern with nothing particularly impressive coming our way anytime soon.  There will be some occasional weak systems aloft which will bring some cloud cover for us, but moisture looks to be very limited so will go with a dry forecast for now until something more definitive shows up.

Those trends also look to carry over into the 8-14 day outlook which continues with a strong signal suggesting temperatures above normal through that period.  That would most likely translate to daytime highs holding in the lower 80s and overnight lows well into the 50s or perhaps even low 60s.   Also, the 8-14 day outlook is keeping our chances of additional moisture in the below normal category so if we do not receive some decent rains tonight, then it may be two weeks or so before we get another good chance.

[img]

[img]

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot