Active Pattern Followed By A Cool-Down

Could get interesting next few days with a chance of storms overnight tonight, another chance late Wednesday through the overnight hours, but the best chance still looks to be for the Thursday night time frame.  For tonight, the severe threat is very conditional as storms that are forming in NW/SW OK will be moving into a less stable atmosphere as they move E/NE for the overnight hours.  That shows up from the dew point map as of late this afternoon which clearly shows the dry line in far W OK and a zone with dew points in the mid 60s just east of that through Central OK.  But, further east, those dew points gradually drop back into the 50s.  This all suggests that the highest instability is located where the highest dew points are located and a more stable atmosphere elsewhere.

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Of course, that is all subject to change but all the available data to this point suggests that the storms now forming in W OK will weaken as they spread this way overnight because of the somewhat drier air and also with the loss of daytime heating.  That is not to say that there will not be some storms tonight, but they are expected to be weakening as they move this way and primarily impacting the more northern counties late tonight with perhaps a few lingering showers for the more eastern counties into the morning hours.

With SE winds continuing overnight and mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will be very mild to start the day with morning lows in the 60s.  As we go through the day Wednesday, we will have partly cloudy to at times mostly cloudy skies, brisk southerly winds but not as strong as today, and daytime temperatures near the 90 degree mark.  The dry line may become active out west again late Wednesday and some of that activity will be moving our way for the overnight hours with another chance of showers/storms.

Then, Thursday will also see a chance of scattered showers/storms during the day but mostly likely that evening and overnight in advance of a cold front that will be arriving during the late night hours.  Once again, there will be the potential for some of those storms to become severe.  Also, the rainfall potential remains very optimistic as you can see on the 5 day QPF map which suggests the possibility of a good soaking.  However, as stated before, recent systems have failed to live up to their potential so will take this with a grain of salt as well.

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Thursday will be another very warm, humid day with morning lows near 70 followed by afternoon highs again near 90 under partly cloudy to at times mostly cloudy skies and a brisk southerly wind.  Gusty northerly winds will bring much cooler and drier air over the state for Friday so the showers/storms should have ended by early that morning.  However, the clouds may not clear out till later in the day so look for afternoon temperatures to hold generally in the 60s for much of the day and if we get enough sunshine early enough could make it to 70.

After that, the cooler, drier air in place will provide lots of sunshine and very fine fall weather going through the coming weekend.  Morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs generally in the 70s should be the general rule as you can see on our forecast page.. 

But, those cooler temperatures are not expected to last long as the 8-14 day outlook has a strong signal suggesting temperatures above normal for the following 7 day period.  That would most likely translate to daytime highs back into the 80s and overnight lows well into the 50s or even 60s.   Also, the 8-14 day outlook is keeping our chances of additional moisture in the below normal category so if we do not receive some decent rains this week, it may be at least another week or more before we get another good chance.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot