Warming Up With Storm Chances Soon For Eastern Oklahoma

Monday, October 3rd 2016, 4:13 am
By: Alan Crone

We are tracking the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms across part of Northeastern Oklahoma for the middle of the week, and then a strong cold front will arrive Thursday night and Friday with yet another round of precipitation. Temperatures today will start in the mid-to-upper 50s and end into the mid or even upper 80s along with mostly sunshine and south winds at 10 to 15 mph.   A small area of small showers will fester around the I-35 corridor region for the next few hours.   These should dissipate shortly after sunrise but may drop to the southeast nearing Stillwater to Pawnee before falling apart.

WARN Interactive Radar

You may have noticed the moisture content returning across the area this weekend with a slightly more humid feel yesterday afternoon.   This will continue today.  Daytime highs into the mid or upper 80s will be likely across all of Eastern Oklahoma today with any afternoon or evening storm activity would be confined to Far North Western Oklahoma.

Weather Alerts

Tomorrow morning we'll start with temperatures in the mid-60s with partly cloudy conditions and south winds increasing at 15 to 30 mph.   Tuesday afternoon highs should make it into the lower to mid 80s.  A strong upper level storm system will rapidly move across the Inter-mountain region and inject into the northern High Plains.   A dry line will establish across Western Oklahoma.   A dry line separates dry and stable air from warm and unstable air.   This dry-line will help to trigger showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening near and west of the I-35 corridor.     Late Tuesday night some storm activity will be likely across parts of Northern and Eastern Oklahoma and some of the storms could even be severe late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.   Locations along and North of Highway 412 will have the best chance Tuesday night and Wednesday morning for scattered showers and storms with much lower probabilities located to the south of this area. 

The upper level low will be moving into far Northern Montana and then into Southern Canada Wednesday.   But the main long wave trough will still be west of our immediate area.   Basically we will reload our moisture content Wednesday and wait for the surface cold front to move across the area sometime Thursday night or early Friday morning.   When this happens, additional thunderstorms are likely to occur and for a larger area.   At this point in the forecast process, it appears the best chance for showers and thunderstorms with the actual cold front will be late Thursday night and pre-dawn Friday.   Once the cold front passes our area Friday morning, dry, stable, and cooler air should invade the state for the rest of the weekend.   Saturday morning lows in the upper 40s will be followed by sunshine and highs in the lower 70s.   Sunday will start with lows in the mid-40s.   Sunday afternoon highs will reach the lower or mid-70s.   Both sets of extended data suggest another disturbance nearing the state late Sunday night into Monday with a few showers or storms possible early next week.   I do need to mention the data is not consistent regarding the trough passage Saturday.   GFS is more aggressive ( dry and stable) and the EURO is slower ( cooler and wet) for Saturday morning.   At this point, we’re sticking with the sunny and dry solution for Saturday.  

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Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone