Good Chance For Showers, Storms Next Few Days

Those spotty showers/storms that developed during the day today were slow movers and dropped some brief, but heavy rainfall for a few locations as you can see on this map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  Over the next few days, we will see better chances of showers/storms and once again if you happen to be underneath one of them, you can expect torrential rainfall, dangerous lightning, and some gusty winds.  But, the severe weather threat is minimal as conditions aloft are not very favorable. 

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As we go through the night tonight, most of the activity from this afternoon/evening will be falling apart due to the loss of daytime heating.  We will also have partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and a light wind, primarily from an easterly direction.  That means another very warm start to our day with temperatures generally in the upper 60s or low 70s for Thursday morning.

As we go through the day Thursday, a light SE breeze and mostly cloudy skies together with the better chance of showers/storms will keep afternoon temperatures generally in the mid 80s.  But, if you happen to be under one of those storms that pops up, the rain cooled air will bring temperatures back into the 70s.  And, there will be a relatively good chance of a shower or storm just about any time during the day as we have a rather weak SW wind flow aloft with some embedded disturbances which could set off a storm at just about any time. 

Friday will see an even better chance of showers/storms due to a more favorable wind pattern aloft.  Since abundant moisture remains in place due to a continued light southerly wind, then those showers/storms will also be capable of dropping some torrential rains in a few locations.  Notice the 3 day QPF map which again suggests at least an inch or two, but keep in mind this is an areal average and some locations could get twice that much while nearby locations receive very little.  This QPF is valid through Saturday and was used since the shower activity looks to be decreasing starting Sunday and into next week.

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Speaking of Saturday, lingering showers and storms will also be possible although the chances should be dropping off at least somewhat after Friday.  The timing on Friday is still questionable due to a rather weak flow aloft and the presence of the abundant moisture.  The weaker systems can pull some real surprises regarding when and where they will create showers/storms so about the best that can be said at this point is that we have a good chance of showers/storms through Friday and into the day Saturday tapering off going into next week.

And, since there is no significant change in air mass, then we will remain very warm and humid in the days ahead.  Dew point temperatures are running in the upper 60s and low 70s on our side of the state and that is not likely to change anytime soon which also means our overnight lows will be generally in the 60s to low 70s in the nights ahead. 

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As you can see on our forecast page, the cloud cover and chances of showers/storms will at least keep daytime temperatures in check until early next week when we should have more sunshine and fewer cooling showers/storms.  The longer range guidance is coming into better agreement for a warmer, drier signal for Mon-Wed of next week.

Looking further downstream, the 8-14 day outlook is suggesting normal to perhaps above normal temperatures along with wetter than normal conditions.  So, even at the longer time ranges, the data runs are not currently suggesting any really cool, fall-like weather appears to be headed this way anytime soon.

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In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot