Warmer Nights, Increasing Chances for Rain.

Notice how mild it was this morning and then the big warm-up during the course of the day today.  That is a function of dry air in place this morning which allowed for the very mild start to the day and the abundant sunshine then resulted in the warmer afternoon temperatures.  Unfortunately, warmer and more humid air is now replacing the drier air as a S/SE wind will bring our dew points well into the 60s for the next few days.  That, in turn, will lead to much warmer nights and in fact we are expecting temperatures tonight to be as much as 10 degrees or more warmer than was the case this morning.  Most of us will be in the mid-upper 60s to start the day Tuesday and the urban locations will be closer to 70. 

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We have also had some high level cloud cover return today and expect those clouds to hang around through the night and much of the day Tuesday as well.  We should still have enough sunshine for daytime highs to reach the lower 90s for most of us along with a S/SE wind and no mention of rain.

However, rain will be back in the forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday although only on a hit or miss basis; mostly miss.  A very weak frontal boundary will be dropping into the northern counties and becoming diffuse so our winds will be light and primarily from the E/NE or E/SE for Wednesday and Thursday.  This front will not be followed by clearing skies and drier air initially; in fact, it will become diffuse so the warm, humid air along with mostly cloudy skies and chances for rain will linger into the latter part of the week.  Also, better support aloft is expected by Thursday which is why we have a better chance of showers/storms for Thursday as you can see on our forecast page.

A stronger system looks to arrive Friday night or early Saturday which is expected to provide even better chances for showers/storms during the day Friday which should be ending Friday night or Saturday morning.  Rainfall amounts could be generous as you can see on the 7 day QPF map.  As always, keep in mind this does not mean that everyone will receive that much rain, just that the potential is there for some locations to get a good soaking.  In the meantime, the warm and humid air in place will keep us generally in the mid-upper 60s to near 70 at night and generally in the 80s during the day going into the weekend.

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Even though it now appears the front will receive a stronger push southward Saturday and Sunday, there are some discrepancies in the longer range guidance which suggest temperatures will not be cooling off all that much.  Right now, it appears we will still be in the 60s at night and 80s during the day despite a more E/NE wind for Sun/Mon.  We will also have some lingering cloud cover and some of the longer range guidance continues to suggest chances of rain for the more southern counties in particular.  Given the lack of consensus, have opted to leave showers out of the forecast for that time period for now, but that will be closely monitored with subsequent model solutions.

Looking further downstream, the 8-14 day outlook is now suggesting above normal temperatures along with wetter than normal conditions.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot