A warm front is moving back across Northern Oklahoma and Southern Kansas this morning with the possibly a few scattered showers and storms. Mostly to partly cloudy conditions are anticipated and a few scattered showers or storms cannot be ruled out this morning with a slightly better chance later this afternoon. One or two of the afternoon storms could produce some down burst winds and small hail. Any mature storms later today will also be efficient rainfall producers.
Temperatures this morning are much warmer compared to the previous few mornings with many locations in the lower 70s. South winds at 10 to 25 miles per hour along with mostly cloudy conditions have ushered in higher dew point temperatures. This will increase the humidity values later today and also tomorrow with Wednesday afternoon heat index values around 100. Another weak boundary will approach the area Thursday, but this front will have little impact on temperatures or humidity. A few scattered showers or storms will be possible Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, but no noticeable cooling will occur with this front, other than some localized rain-cooled boundaries for those that do receive some precipitation.
The pattern tomorrow will allow a gusty southwest wind at 15 to 25 miles per hour across most of Eastern Oklahoma. Morning lows into the mid-70s will be followed by daytime highs in the mid-90s and heat index values nearing or slightly exceeding 100. Wednesday will be the hottest day of the week.
The next front will enter northwestern Oklahoma or southern Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. But the latest data is not very bullish on bringing the front into the body of the state Thursday or Friday. None the less, we will continue to keep a slight chance for a few scattered showers or storms Thursday through Saturday due to the proximity of the boundary across parts of Northern Oklahoma or Southern Kansas. There is also a surge of deeper moisture that should move from the Gulf up through east TX and into Eastern OK Friday and Saturday. We may need to increase the pop for this period, but at this point will keep the chances around 20 to 30%.
Extended ensemble data also continue to indicate the mid-level ridge of high pressure may build across part of the southern Plains through early next week. This may also linger into the first full week of September. The result will be a return to humid and very warm conditions. As stated here several days last week, we are not finished with our summertime pattern.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!