Rain Chances on the Increase, Cooler for the Weekend.

In the for-what-its-worth department, today is hump day from a climatological perspective.  By that I mean, today is the day in which our average temperatures start trending downward for the rest of the year.  For example, the normal max/min for Tulsa yesterday was 94/72; today it is 93/71 and by the end of the month it will be 90/68.  That is not to say we are done with summer time heat as triple digits are not uncommon well into the month of September, just that the trend is downward till we bottom out in the dead of winter.

As for today, we have had just enough cloud cover to hold temperatures below normal once again and there have also been a few showers and some thunder around.  Emphasis on few and primarily over the more SE counties as is evident on today’s rainfall map through late this afternoon. 

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As you can see on the latest drought monitor released earlier today, portions of the state are getting too dry and could use a good soaking.  The spotty showers and embedded storms of recent weeks have not been widespread enough to keep drought from rearing its ugly head once again.  Fortunately, we have a decent shot at some soaking rains over the next few days and again later next week.

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First, for tonight a light southerly breeze and partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies should keep most of us from dropping below 70 for an overnight low.  A few showers and perhaps even a storm or two is possible by early morning, again primarily over the more SE counties.  As the day progresses, we should have mostly cloudy skies for most of the day but enough sunshine for daytime highs to reach the mid-upper 80s.  Dew point temperatures holding in the low 70s will keep the relative humidity from dropping much below 60% during the heat of the day so it will be rather muggy.  Heat index values could reach the low-mid 90s during the heat of the day as well.

With deeper moisture in place and an approaching cool front there will also be a scattering of showers/storms during the day Friday but the better chances still look to be later that night into Saturday morning.  The latest data runs have come into better agreement that the cool front will be reaching the I-44 corridor around sunrise or shortly thereafter and quickly moving on eastward during the day.  That means the best chance of showers/storms will be overnight and into the morning hours of Saturday followed by the showers quickly moving on eastward and clearing skies from W-E by afternoon.  The potential remains for a good soaking for some of us as the 3 day QPF map, valid through Sunday, suggests some locations could pick up more than an inch or rain.

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Brisk northerly winds behind the front will bring in drier air so that Sunday morning should start off in the lower 60s and perhaps even some 50s for the cooler valleys as you can see on our forecast page.  Sunny skies and light NE winds should also hold daytime temperatures into the low-mid 80s.  Monday is also looking promising although an increase in cloud cover later in the day and possibly a shower or two may occur that night.  Southerly winds and warmer, more humid conditions will then be the general rule going through the middle of next week along with a few showers or storms.  Our next, stronger system now looks to be coming this way along about that following weekend.

Also, looking further ahead, the 8-14 day outlook continues to suggest temperatures averaging below normal and precipitation chances above normal.  That would take us through the end of August and strongly suggests no additional triple digit temperatures nor heat index values through that period.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot