A low amplitude mid-level disturbance is modeled to move from Texas into Oklahoma Wednesday into Thursday with some rain and storm chances for some locations while a stronger upper level wave in the northern jet will push a surface cold front across the state Friday night into the weekend. These two features will produce rain and storms across part of the state beginning with the southern system Wednesday and Thursday. As the northern system crosses the area Friday night into Saturday, showers and storms will be possible part of the area along with another noticeable cool down for the weekend. Temperatures both today and tomorrow should move back to near 90 with a slightly increasing humidity feel for the afternoon hours.
Temperatures this morning are very pleasant with lower to mid-60s common across the eastern third of the state. Some spots in the valleys will briefly drop into the upper 50s before moving into the 80s by midday and near 90 through the afternoon. Southeast winds will return today in the 10 to 15 mph range.
Model data is consistent with our two weather features in the forecast but some data is more robust with the 1st (southern stream Texas) system. We’ll not make any big moves in our forecast at this point but as we already increased the pops last night for Thursday. We do have some inconsistencies in the model output regarding the exact location of the mid-level disturbance.
Convective and potential energy will be increasing during the middle to end of the week and thunder will be mentioned with both systems including Thursday. The greater instability Friday may reside slightly north of our area as the front drops southward by Friday night. Regardless, a few strong to near severe storms will need to be mentioned but widespread severe weather is not anticipated with either system.
The current timing for the Friday system will arrive by late afternoon and evening with storms also possible across northern OK pre-dawn. Data this morning is slower with the frontal intrusion. The GFS is one day later and the EURO is about 12 hours slower than yesterday. This means the front may not cross the metro until either Saturday afternoon/evening or even Sunday morning. For this reason, I’ll need to add Sunday morning pop. This portion of the forecast may continue to undergo some changes, so please check often for updates.
Lows this weekend will be in the lower to mid-60s. Highs will stay in the lower to mid-80s Saturday and the lower 80s Sunday.
We do not see any major return to excessive heat during the next two weeks. Strange yet highly welcomed for August!
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!