Help is on the way! A cold front will arrive across northern OK today and slowly advance south today. A few storms will develop today into the afternoon hours with more widespread rain chances tonight into pre-dawn Saturday for part eastern OK. Temperatures are expected to drop this weekend into the upper 80s for afternoon highs and morning lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The respite from the heat and humidity may last into next week. Today will continue to be hot and humid for most locations with heat advisories posted for locations along and south of the I-40 corridor region.
The main upper air pattern will support a strong upper level low moving across the northern U.S. with a broad western trough moving east during the next 48 hours. The surface reflection in the form of a strong cold front has already entered northwestern OK this morning and will progress into our area by this afternoon. A few spotty showers will be likely this morning to midday near or north of the metro. Most convective allowing models develop scattered storms by early afternoon into the evening hours with the best chance around 7pm tonight to 4am Saturday. While upper level support is lacking, a few strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening may be possible with damaging down bursts of winds. Additionally, the tropical air mass currently in place will lead to efficient rainfall producers for those areas that do receive a few storms this afternoon and early evening. Cloud to ground lightning will also be a threat.
Later tonight into predawn Saturday more rain is likely to develop behind the front due to the influence of the upper trough still near the area. This should be across part of northeastern and eastern OK early Saturday morning before shifting southeast into southeastern and east central OK by late afternoon and evening. If all goes as planned, Saturday will be “dry” for most of NE OK after the early morning hours.
The surface front will stall across or near the Red River Valley region and provide a focus for additional rain and storms Saturday night into Sunday morning. The exact placement may change, but at this hour appears to be centered upon southeastern OK into east central sections and extending into Northwestern Arkansas. The continued flow of moisture near and behind the boundary may lead to some training of precipitation and heavy rainfall for some locations. A flood or flash flood watch may be required for part of this area later this weekend. This should be southeast of the metro.
Monday into early next week the pattern will remain active with various model solutions allowing for additional showers and storms for part of eastern OK. Our forecast will continue to keep some low mentions for rain and storms in the extended along with temperatures remaining in the 80s to near 90 for most of the week.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!