Once again we are in the running for a few scattered to widely isolated thunderstorms across Eastern Oklahoma today. The chance will remain somewhat low, but a few locations could pick up an isolated storm or two. The higher probability and the better coverage will be across extreme Eastern Oklahoma later today. Another heat advisory will be required this afternoon and should be continued through the end of the week as afternoon heat indices climb above 105 to near 110 degrees. An Air Quality Alert (Ozone Alert) has been issued for the Tulsa metro today.
The ridge of high pressure in the mid-level of the atmosphere will slowly expand over the next 24 to 36 hours. But this feature will also vacate the area by Friday and Saturday as a strong cold front will move across portions of the Central High Plains into the state of Oklahoma sometime Friday or Friday night. This will happen as a seasonally strong upper level trough moves across the central portions of the nation.
The cold front will approach portions of Northern Oklahoma either Friday afternoon or Friday night with a round of showers and storms a possibility. The exact timing of the front will be refined in subsequent forecast cycles, but the data this morning indicates a chance for a few storms during the late day, but higher chances late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Some rain and thunder may continue for the first part of Saturday across portions of Northern Oklahoma before slowly shifting southward during the midday or early afternoon time. There may also be some lingering showers or storms Saturday night into Sunday morning, but the higher probability for this scenario should be across Southern Oklahoma and North Texas. There remains some uncertainty with the Saturday night and Sunday morning forecast, as the upper-level trough may still be influencing portions of the state during this period. Regardless we do anticipate a noticeable cool down Saturday and Sunday, and this may continue for a day or two early next week. MOS output from the GFS is lower than I’ll use for the weekend numbers. But if the trough lingers ( and the rain lasts longer) these cooler numbers will verify. Now…with that out of the way…. temperatures this weekend will start in the upper 60s and lower 70s for morning lows. Daytime highs Saturday may stay in the mid or upper 80s along with mostly cloudy conditions and northeast winds at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Sunday morning temperatures could start into the mid or upper 60s with mostly cloudy conditions and move into the mid or upper 80s with partly sunny conditions and northeast winds at 10 to 15 miles per hour. We’ll keep Monday's high temperatures near 88 along with Northeast winds at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Not only will Cooler conditions filter across Northern Oklahoma this weekend, dryer Air at the surface should eventually allow for better heat index values Sunday and Monday. No heat advisories will be required. Again…some data is cooler than we’re forecasting for the weekend. Stay tuned!
Today will continue to be hot and humid. Temperature heat indices from 105 to 110 will be likely this afternoon with daytime highs in the mid to upper 90s along with partly to mostly sunny conditions. The hot and humid weather will continue Thursday with daytime highs near 100. Friday's high temperatures may still top out in the mid-to-upper 90s before the front arrives Friday afternoon or Friday night.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day.