Yet another day or two of northwest flow aloft will keep the storm chances in the forecast before the ridge of high pressure build back across the state. A few storms are trying to re-form at this hour across part of Kansas and may blossom into a small MCS while moving southeast early this morning.
A quick draw of the pencil puts the trajectory across north-central OK into south-central sections. So part of the system may slide into our areas near or west of the Tulsa metro.
We’ll need to keep a decent chance of storms in the morning to midday forecast with decreasing but not zero pops later today. The weak boundary that moved across the area yesterday will be positioned near or slightly south of the metro region and may provide another focus for daytime storm development late this afternoon across the southern sections.
Highs today may stay in the upper 80s north and the lower 90s south with heat index values in the upper 90s north to near 101 southern OK.
Later tonight another disturbance may crank up yet one more storm complex near the area with storms impacting part but of northeastern OK into pre-dawn Saturday. After the Saturday morning hours, the chances for storms will revert back to the scattered or pop up variety during the afternoon hours with highs in the lower 90s.
Sunday morning into the afternoon the mid-level ridge is forecast to expand eastward and effectively shove the northwest flow out of the area. Some data does offer an early morning round of storms Sunday to the northeast of the metro for a few hours and we’ll continue to keep this mention in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s for the morning hours before warming into the mid-90s by afternoon.
The pattern next week will be characterized by a mid-level ridge of high pressure building again across most of the southern plains and this will increase our temperatures by a few degrees for both morning lows and daytime highs. Lows in the upper 70s are likely with daytime highs in the upper 90s. By Wednesday or Thursday, we may be near 100 again. The tropical air-mass is expected to mix-out slightly but dew points in the 70s should remain and local heat index values may exceed 105 for some locations early next week resulting in another round of heat advisories for part of eastern OK.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a great day and a safe weekend!