Would you believe we had another record warm overnight low this morning? Actually, we tied the previous record set back in 1925 of 81 here in Tulsa. That makes 4 days so far this month in which we have either tied or set a record warm morning low. The only other June that has had more records along those lines was June of 1980 and that also turned out to be the hottest summer on record for Tulsa.
Although we have not set any record daytime highs, those very warm nights have contributed to what has so far been a very warm June with temperatures running nearly 5 degrees above normal. In fact, there have only been 3 days all month in which the average temperature for the day was at or below normal and those were all early in the month. It has also been a very dry month with less than an inch of rain so far recorded in Tulsa and we are running more than 3 inches below normal so far.
Fortunately, there is a change in the overall weather pattern in this final week of the month which should provide at least some minor relief from the heat and at least a chance of some cooling showers and storms along with the badly needed rainfall. As you can see on our forecast page, we will have not only a chance of a few showers for the more northern counties tonight, but also a chance again later in the day Friday. Friday should also see more cloud cover which should knock a degree or two off our daytime highs although the morning lows will still be extremely warm with upper 70s to near 80 again expected.
Right now, Saturday looks dry along with a brisk southerly wind so expect daytime highs in the mid-upper 90s again along with heat index values in excess of 100. Also, another very warm night with morning lows in the upper 70s to near 80.
Sunday going through the rest of next week is when it looks like the upper level ridge that has produced such oppressive heat and kept any showers at bay will finally relax somewhat and drift further westward. That will place us in a more favorable NW flow pattern aloft for the production of at least a few showers and storms and also allow a somewhat stronger boundary to penetrate this far south to provide at least some relief from the heat.
Again, this will take several days for the pattern to change, but as you can see on the 8-14 day outlook which will carry us on into July, the trends support below normal temperatures to start the month. Of course, the month of June also started off relatively mild and has been anything but so far. By the way, the next chart shows the longer range guidance for the month of July which at least has us out of the above normal category prevalent for most of the rest of the country.
As for the rain which is so badly needed, notice the 7 day QPF map which indicates at least the potential for some of our more northern counties to pick up some decent rains.
That also extends into the 8-14 day outlook although the month of July as a whole is in the EC category meaning it could go either way. So, count your blessings if you catch a good rain during that time frame as we certainly could use it.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.