Our short term forecast revolves around the heat and humidity that will bring heat index values from 108 to 115 across part of northeastern OK and readings from 105 to 110 across the rest of southeastern OK today. The mid-level ridge of high pressure currently dominating most of the state will slide westward over the next two days allowing a weak system arriving from Missouri and Arkansas to bring a few showers or storms to eastern OK over the next 24 hours. Additionally, the temperatures in the 5,000 feet level will drop a few degrees and the surface dew points will drop a few degrees through the weekend. The result will be a reduction in heat index values by Sunday and a reduction in the actual air temperature for a few days early next week.
Early this morning we’re tracking another small area of showers and storms across far southwestern Missouri. These will be quickly moving away from the area and dissipating. Some of the Hi-Res convective allowing models are blowing up storms this morning across part of northern OK but I have disregarded these solutions based on the presence of warm air aloft and the persistence of the mid-level ridge. We’ll continue to watch closely for any signs of storm development this morning, but this should not occur.
The next slight chance for a few isolated storms will be later this afternoon across far eastern OK and western Arkansas. We’ll also have a few isolated storm chances Saturday as the above mentioned disturbance moves closer to the eastern third of the state.
Temperatures will remain warm today with highs in the mid to upper 90s along with heat index values from 108 to 115. Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 70s with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values will be near 105 to 107. Sunday lows in the mid-70s will be followed by highs in the lower to mid-90s. Temperatures next week will start with lows near 73 and highs in the 91 to 94 range Monday and Tuesday, with Wednesday temperatures back near 95 to 97.
GFS and EURO data diverge significantly next week with the positioning of the mid-level ridge. GFS would bring a northwest flow pattern into the area with the potential for cooler air and some active weather, while the EURO seems to hang on the ridge longer and keeps us rather warm for the end of next week. Until we see real signs of the pattern change, we’re sticking with persistence for next week.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a great day!