A Few Storms And Increasing Heat Index Values

Monday, June 13th 2016, 4:16 am
By: Alan Crone

A weak mid-level disturbance located near our area may keep a few widely spaced showers or storms in the region this morning and later today as daytime heating begins to influence the area.  

Any storms will be highly efficient rainfall producers due to the tropical like air mass entrenched across the area.  Most locations will remain void of precipitation across eastern OK today. 

Indications support slightly higher dew point temps Wednesday and Thursday that will bring heat index values up from 105 to 110.   This means heat advisories would be required for the middle of the wee, possibly as early as Tuesday.   These may last for the rest of the week.

A weak mid-level disturbance is also forecast to move out of the desert southwest into the central U.S. Tuesday.   Storms will be likely across the central U.S. region but a layer of warm air aloft may prohibit a large area of the state from experiencing thunderstorm activity with this system.   We will, however, need to keep a mention of storm possibilities due to the system nearby with the higher chances for activity residing across northern OK and southern Kansas.   If storms do form Tuesday, some severe storms would be possible.   Some model data support the tail end of the Kansas convection sliding across far northern OK Tuesday night before weakening.

After the Tuesday disturbance lifts northeast, a mid level ridge of high pressure is likely to expand from the desert southwest into part of the southern plains.   The stronger portion of this ridge will remain to our west, but this feature is expected to allow us to warm a few more degrees with some locations pushing 98 to near 100 Wednesday into Thursday.   A weak front may enter northern OK Friday but the odds of this boundary sliding southward seem farfetched at this point.

Temperatures will remain warm with muggy conditions for the week.   Lows in the lower to mid-70s will be followed by highs in the around 90 Today and about 94 Tuesday.  Temps may move into the upper 90s near 100 Wednesday and Thursday.   We’ll plan for some “not as hot” temps Friday into the weekend, but will continue to keep this reading in the 90s for this forecast cycle update.  A heat advisory will more than likely be required for part of the area soon.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone