The main upper air pattern remains consistent but will slowly change this weekend into early next week. This will allow for a few showers or storms to near the area by this weekend with a better chance for a few storms early next week through Wednesday. The temperatures will continue to stay in the lower 90s today and through the weekend for daytime highs with morning lows in the lower 70s. But the heat index numbers are expected to slowly increase, from 97 to near 100, this weekend into early next week.
The flow will become more zonal (west to east) for the weekend and more from the southwest by early next week. The mid-level ridge of high pressure will weaken, beginning today, and this may allow for a few scattered storms again across far southeastern OK or western Arkansas. Additional storms will also be occurring this morning through midday across far western OK but these will not survive the trip into our area.
As the low level moisture increases across the area, a few storms will be more likely tomorrow across part of southeastern and east central OK but we’ll need to keep these mentions in the isolated to 20% chance.
Sunday into Monday slightly higher dew points are modeled to arrive and we should have a few more storms. We’ll need to include a chance for the Tulsa metro Sunday for this activity.
Monday into Tuesday our next upper level storm will move from the Rockies into the central plains. Enough forcing will pass near the state to encourage the formation for a few storms but the specific output from various models continues to flip around. GFS is more north with the main H5 system (Minnesota by Wednesday) with the EURO more southward (Nebraska). The air mass is expected to be quasi-tropical in nature. This means any storms that form early next week will be efficient rain producers and could produce heavy downpours, but again, for limited areas.
The temperatures will more than likely remain around 90 to 92 through this period but some localized pockets of cooler air will be possible near some of the scattered storms. Its worth noting the ensembles have increased the highs, considerably, for some locations Wednesday and Thursday, before a front attempts to enter the area late next week.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!