Our holiday weekend began with nice, quiet weather after facing several days with the threat of severe weather. By Sunday afternoon, storms returned to Green Country with torrential downpours, lots of hail and even a few spotty wind damage reports. A similar situation may unfold on Memorial Day with more interruptions possible to those outdoor plans.
We have jumped to a more summer-like pattern with daytime heating allowing widely scattered thunderstorms to fire, move very little and collapse in short-order. Our wind shear is weak, but the instability is more than sufficient for storms to fire in the days ahead. For our Monday, a few showers may arrive in the morning hours… leftovers from a complex of storms that fired tonight in west Texas. The chance of storms is much higher in the afternoon when that daytime mugginess charges up the atmosphere. Hail and high winds along with torrential downpours are threats with these storms. However, with so many outdoor plans, it’s important to remember to heed the threat of lightning. As a general rule, when you can hear thunder (whether or not it’s raining), you are close enough to be struck by lightning outside. This could put a brief damper on a cook-out, pool time, or other Memorial Day event, but the day as a whole shouldn’t be a wash-out. Just be aware Mother Nature may interrupt once or twice. Below is the forecast for Memorial Day along with current lake levels across Green Country.
Storms are back in the picture by Tuesday. They may be more widespread, especially later in the day as the main upper level impulse approaches. Heavy downpours could enhance the threat for localized flash flooding, especially in areas already with drenched soils. That night into Wednesday will be our highest risk for heavy thunderstorms as a cold front sags into the area. It will be a focus for overnight rains that could linger well into the day Wednesday. Once again, the severe weather threat is limited, but heavy rains could cause localized floods to occur. Another reminder when on the road in such conditions: turn around, don’t drown!
This cold front will gradually bring an end to this multi-day stretch of stormy weather. In fact, a trough in the jet stream will get anchored just over the Midwest, inducing northerly flow in the jet stream, allowing cooler, drier air to settle into the region and keep any major storm system at bay. The one hiccup in this pattern may be a cut-off low pressure forming just beneath it. Should that low drift close to Oklahoma, we could end up with cloudier and potentially showery weather. Either way, this will not be a severe weather pattern. In fact, it looks like this quiet stretch could extend into the middle of June! The 8 to 14 day outlooks below show the cooler and drier than normal stretch ahead. This is welcome news in a normally very muggy time of the year.