Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Warm Up This Weekend

Friday, May 20th 2016, 4:08 am
By: Alan Crone

The main focus of the forecast will be the changing upper air pattern resulting in daily thunderstorm chances next week including the potential for severe weather.   Warmer air will also arrive with temperatures above the seasonal average all of next week.  Highs today will be in the lower 70s after some morning clouds will slowly thin out from the west to east.  

The current upper level system that brought spotty showers across the area yesterday is now exiting the area.   A few showers may still occur this morning near the metro, and then again this afternoon, but the odds will remain very low, and the location this afternoon should be extreme eastern OK.  Temperatures will stay in the upper 50s this morning with low clouds but improving visibility by midday.  Light south winds are expected today.

The pattern will change this weekend into early next week allowing a very active (and typical) southwest flow aloft to impact the southern and central plains.   A dry line will establish across far western OK with a surface area of low pressure located across southeastern Colorado or southwestern Kansas.   South winds will transport rich low level moisture from the Gulf into the state for all of next week.   This means morning lows will eventually be in the mid and upper 60s with daytime highs in the 80s early next week.   Lows by the end of the week could cross above 70.  Storms will fire almost every day along or ahead of the features and have a chance to migrate eastward into eastern OK by evening and early morning.   Some of these will more than likely be severe.   The main upper level trough, however, will not approach until late next week.  But before we get into next week, we need to cross the bridge to the weekend, and the data continue to offer differing views.

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The area “should” be under the influence of a mid-level ridge this weekend before the pattern changes.   But several runs of the 4K and 12K NAM have suggested for the last few days the possibility of some elevated thunder moving across the area Saturday.   All other data suggest warm and dry conditions Saturday.   We have decided to err on the side of caution and keep a mention for a few storms in the forecast this weekend.   We’ll keep watching this data set and make some adjustments as warranted.  The higher chances, however, will remain next week.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone