Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Set Another Record Today

Set another record today; in fact, we set a couple of them.  The daytime high for Tulsa has only been 64 which breaks the previous record of 65 for this date set back in 1981.  Not only that, but this makes 6 straight days of 60 degree temperatures and that has never happened this late in the year before.  The previous record was May 3-8 back in 1907 so this current cool spell is certainly one for the record books.  Notice the chart which shows how our daytime highs have performed over the past week and keep in mind that 80 is normal for this time of year. 

[img]

Of course, those cool temperatures were the general rule statewide with the cloudy skies and occasional light showers holding temperatures down across the state.

[img]

The rains today have been light for the most part as you can see on the 24 hour rainfall map.  Some light showers continue to fall and we will have at least a chance of a few showers or some drizzle into the morning hours of Friday.  However, the system responsible for today’s clouds and showers is finally ejecting eastward and any lingering light rain should have moved on eastward by Friday afternoon.  Together with a light SE wind and at least the possibility of some afternoon sunshine, look for daytime highs to be in the 70s after starting the day in the mid 50s.

[img]

Then it is back to the real world as our weekend will be much warmer and that trend will continue through next week as you can see on our forecast page.  Look for daytime highs to be 80 or above pretty much every day and our nights will also be much warmer with morning lows well into the 60s.  A light SE wind on Saturday followed by stronger southerly winds on Sunday and through next week will also bring abundant low level moisture our way so the mug factor will be more of an issue each day as well.

Not only that, but the wind flow aloft will be more favorable for storms as a system will be dropping into the southern Rockies producing a SW flow pattern across the southern Plains.  That will send periodic disturbances across the state on just about a daily basis so we have at least a chance of showers/storms on any given day next week.  With the stronger wind flow at the surface as well as aloft along with the much warmer, more humid, and therefore more unstable conditions; this is a recipe for severe weather.  Notice the 7 day QPF map certainly shows the potential for some locally heavy rainfall over the next week as well.

[img]

It is far too early to be specific regarding the timing, intensity, and location of storms; but strongly suggest being very weather aware in the week ahead.  As far as the weekend is concerned, the guidance is rather inconsistent but the consensus currently suggests only a slight chance of a shower/storm on either Saturday or Sunday.  The more western counties of the state probably have a better chance than we do here in Green Country, but it is something that will have to be watched closely as this pattern change may pull some surprises. 

In other words, it could get interesting over the next week and as you can see on the 8-14 day guidance, an active pattern is expected to continue through the end of the month and into early June.  Temperatures are also expected to average near normal during that time frame and that combination would suggest a continued severe weather potential. 

[img]

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot