What a difference a day can make; at least that will be the comment by Saturday afternoon as much cooler air will be entrenched by then. As that cooler air moves in tonight, the leading edge of the cool front has set off some showers/storms, but that activity is quickly weakening as it moves to the SE due to the much drier and more stable environment currently in place. The front itself will be through the state by early Saturday morning and eventually becoming stationary across N TX later in the day.
With the front stalling out well to our south and a series of weak disturbances aloft moving overhead, the pattern is set up for little or no sunshine through the weekend and well into next week which means the cooler air will be slow to modify. Not only that, but those disturbances will also produce occasional periods of rain, showers, and a chance of some thunder each day as you can see on our forecast page. By the time it is all said and done, we are in line for a good soaking as you can see on the 7 day QPF map.
This does not mean that the weekend will be a total washout however. In fact, most of Saturday should be dry with only a few sprinkles or perhaps an isolated light shower. A little better chance is expected for Sunday morning but again the day itself does not look to be a washout. Currently, it appears the best chance will be Sunday night into Monday morning when a stronger system aloft moves overhead. That will be followed by another good chance of showers and storms for Tuesday into the day Wednesday and continued chances of showers and/or storms right on through Friday according to the latest/greatest longer range guidance.
Getting back to the big change in temperatures over the next 24 hours, notice the max/min temperature map for today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Keep in mind the normal value is 79/58 for Tulsa, and then consider that we are forecasting our daytime highs through the weekend to be confined to the 60s so quite a change. In fact, below normal temperatures will be the general rule right on through next week.
This active pattern is not particularly conducive to severe weather as long as the cooler air stays over us. That is not to say there will not be thunder and lightning and gusty winds, just that this pattern is not favorable for any significant outbreaks for us. That is subject to change though in the event the warm sector should surge back further northward than currently projected so that is something that will be closely watched in the days ahead.
Looking further down the road, the 8-14 day guidance continues to suggest an active pattern and also a return to warmer temperatures. That would be more favorable for severe weather and since this is May could create some interesting situations during that time frame.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.