The cold front that moved across the area yesterday morning has left us with cool temperatures this morning with most locations in the lower 50s. The winds will return from the south and southwest today in advance of our next strong cold front that will pass the area late tonight. This front will bring a chance for a few showers and storms, but more importantly, will bring much cooler air into the state for the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will stay in the 60s this weekend with morning lows near 50. A series of upper level disturbances will bring rain and storm chances into the area this weekend and early next week. Some of the storms Tuesday may be strong to severe but the higher chances for severe storms may also reside across the far southern sections of the state.
The upper air pattern will be transitioning to a northwest flow this weekend and a zonal flow for a few days early next week. This pattern will help shove a cold front southward with unseasonably cool air for a large portion of the northern high plains, the Midwest, and the northeast the next few days. The southern extent of this air mass will reside across Oklahoma this weekend.
The weather today looks great. We’ll experience sunshine and temperatures warming into the lower or mid-80s along with a breezy southwest wind. The cold front will near southern Kanas by 6pm and enter far northeastern OK around 10pm to midnight. There will be a threat of strong to severe storms across far southern Kansas into the lower Missouri Valley but the southern extent of this threat should be minimized as it enters northern OK. We may also continue to experience a cap or layer of warm air aloft for most of the evening. The higher chance for showers or storms will more than likely be post frontal and this will mitigate the outcome to mostly small hail and gusty winds. But the coverage of storms should remain relatively small. Our timing will be from 7pm across southern Kansas to near 10pm for the metro.
Saturday north winds will usher the cooler air southward. A weak disturbance will move up and over the air mass and should result in scattered showers across the north or some thunder during the day across the south. The coverage will also be very small and spotty Saturday and this means our chance for any given location must also remain small. But please keep in mind some locations will experience showers or storms Saturday.
Sunday the data supports a slightly higher coverage of activity but the parameters still support a mostly stable atmosphere yielding no severe threats for the northern and eastern portion of the state. The timing for the Sunday pops keeps flipping, but the latest seems to indicate a chance early in the morning and then again late in the afternoon and evening.
Monday into Tuesday present some forecasting issues but the general trend in the data remains consistent. Another upper level trough will near the region. In response, a surface area of low pressure will develop across New Mexico and move eastward or southeast. Regardless, warm and moist air should transport northward as pressure falls occur across the state. Scattered showers and storms may also develop Monday as this process occurs. The data today suggest the true warm sector of this system will remain south of our immediate area.
Tuesday the low will begin exiting and the threat for strong to severe storms may also increase across far southeastern OK or north TX. The exact positioning of the surface low and associated features remain unknown with any confidence at this point. As the system exits the area Tuesday night we should experience a few days of calm and quiet weather before another system nears Thursday or Friday.
Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!