Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Short Break With Warmer Temps

The storms have moved out of the area overnight and we’re looking at a very warm afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s along with south winds from 15 mph.   Another fast moving wave will bring yet more storms to the area soon, including the threat of severe thunderstorms to part of the region.   The weekend pattern also looks active with a chance for a few showers or storms Friday night into Saturday and then again Sunday night into Monday.  

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The main upper level system associated with this current round of severe weather is now located to our northeast.   The dry line is becoming diffuse and will more than likely reform to our west later this afternoon or tonight.   As the next upper wave approaches the area, another surface area of low pressure will develop across southwestern Kansas or northwestern OK later tonight.   This will effectively bring very rich low level moisture quickly into central and eastern OK this evening into Wednesday in the form of lower 70 dew points.   As the process occurs, we can’t rule out a stray or isolated thunderstorm late tonight into Wednesday morning but the chances will remain low.   A few storms may fire up across far southeastern OK and a few across northeastern OK.   This will be noted with a 20% pop for late tonight through the overnight hours.

Wednesday afternoon and evening a cold front will be nearing the state as the dry line sharpens to our west.   Thunderstorms are likely to develop along these boundaries and impact part of central and eastern OK Wednesday night into pre-dawn Thursday with large hail and damaging winds.   The tornado threat will remain low but not zero with this event.

Thursday appears dry (after some early morning to midday leftovers) and pleasant with highs in the mid-70s along with northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph.

Friday into the weekend presents a pattern change, at least for a short period, with a northwest flow developing across the plains.   This will bring another disturbance into the area Friday night and then again Sunday into Monday with thunderstorm chances.   A few of these Sunday night into Monday may be severe across eastern OK.   Temperatures will more than likely cool to below seasonal averages this weekend into early next week.

Thanks for reading the abbreviated version of the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone