Our weather will remain unsettled and active for the next few days with thunderstorm chances and the threat of severe weather. All modes of severe weather will be possible this afternoon and tonight including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
A second system will near the area Wednesday evening, and yet a third may drop into the plain this weekend. Temperatures will remain above the seasonal average this week, including Tuesday’s highs in the upper 80s.
The main upper level storm system is centered over the Rockies this morning and will quickly lift northeast into the central and northern plains tonight and tomorrow. A second upper level low will dive down from the Pacific Northwest and influence our weather Wednesday.
The upper air flow will transition from the southwest to the northwest by late this week and may bring another system into the region this weekend and possibly by this time next week. Springtime in Oklahoma.
This morning a lead disturbance is rotating around the main upper level system and is moving from the southwest to northeast across the area. Showers and storms will develop and also move northeast this morning across part of eastern OK. These storms will more than likely not be able to utilize all of the available energy in the atmosphere.
These elevated storms may produce some marginally severe hail this morning with some of the stronger cells and some winds near 40 to 50 mph but most of this activity will remain below severe levels. A few severe storms, however, can’t be ruled out.
The morning clouds will begin to break by midday. Partly sunny conditions will allow highs in the upper 70s or even a few lower 80s and strong south winds will continue to enforce the low level moisture feed into the state.
Sometime this afternoon the dry line will begin moving eastward and scattered storms will attempt to develop. The first development may be around 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. around the I-35 region with storms quickly becoming severe. Storms would continue to move east and northeast into eastern OK this evening before exiting around 10 p.m. to midnight across far eastern OK and western Arkansas as the main upper level trough begins to lose its influence across the area.
Tuesday we’ll be in between systems. The dry line will more than likely never cross the Tulsa metro but will become rather diffuse and may possibly reform well west of the area by Tuesday night or Wednesday as the next upper level trough begins to drop down from the Pacific Northwest into the central plains. This will cause a second area of low pressure to develop across northwestern or western OK Tuesday night. Wednesday this system will move eastward or southeast and bring a cold front across the area by late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Some additional storms will be possible during this period. A few may be strong to severe with hail and wind the main threats, but the better forcing for severe storms may reside to the northeast of the metro.
Thursday and Friday will more than likely bring us a respite in the activity before another system develops with more storm chances for part of the weekend. The data is unclear regarding the exact outcome with this weekend system but as the week progresses the confidence regarding timing and placement should also increase. Temperatures will more than likely drop into the lower 70s for highs this weekend with lows in the 50s.
Please remain aware of your weather surroundings today and tonight.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a safe day.