As I write this Sunday evening, severe storms have broken out in western and central Oklahoma. This is the first of two rounds of threatening weather to impact our state. While the storms out west are likely to weaken as they approach Green Country, the risk for severe weather will ramp up again on Monday. Tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds are all possible, which is little surprise since we’re at the peak of severe weather season.
The slow-moving storm system is centered to our northwest and pieces of energy are pivoting around it from southwest to northeast. The most significant wave will arrive Monday afternoon to Green Country, likely spawning a rash of strong to severe thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Before that however, showers and storms are likely to arrive from Texas during the morning hours. While this activity won’t likely be severe given the time of day, it could impact some morning drives with locally heavy downpours possible. Assuming this activity clears the region midday, we should be primed for storms to fire with afternoon heating along the dry line.
Above, you can see the risk area outlined for Monday. The moderate level of severe weather encompasses nearly all of Green Country. By 3pm, be ready for severe weather in the area. The storms will quickly fire and push east at a fairly rapid clip. By 9pm to 11pm, these storms will likely be moving into Arkansas as a complex or broken line of storms. Initially, these storms will be capable of large hail. Any discrete supercell could develop rotation and a risk for tornadoes. As these storms overrun one another, the threat will shift to damaging winds. It’s a small window for severe weather, but be aware that this is one of the higher risk days of the season. The various threats, as we see them Sunday evening, are shown below.
Following this system, we will see a break in the action Tuesday into the first half of Wednesday. We will see hotter, (yes, hot!) drier air arriving Tuesday from the southwest as we approach 90° for the first time this year. Moisture makes a return on Wednesday just in time for a cold front to arrive. That muggy air mass interacting with the incoming front may spark another line of storms. Once again, severe weather is possible.
By the end of the week, the fast-moving flow in the jet stream aloft will send another cold front our way. This could set us up for a couple days of rain and storms starting Friday night as impulses override the frontal boundary stalling out nearby.
It’s clearly an active weather pattern this week! We’ll keep you posted as the threat evolves Monday and again later this week. For the latest updates, be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook Page.