Pattern Change in the Days Ahead.

Once again, we have received additional updates regarding the outbreak of severe weather on Apr 26, ie Tuesday, of last week.  Here is the latest information and the good folks at the NWS office continue to evaluate damage reports and their survey data so these totals remain tentative and subject to change.  Certainly a unique event.

[img]

Also, the generous rains of last week went a long way to reduce the drought conditions that had been spreading across the state.  Notice the latest drought monitor which has OK in much better shape compared to where we were just a few weeks ago.

[img]

Fortunately, this week has been very quiet and we certainly had a gorgeous day today.  After another cool start this morning, temperatures warmed nicely this afternoon as you can see on the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the good folks at the OK Mesonet.  By way of reference, the normal max/min for Tulsa is 77/56 and today was 79/47. 

[img]

With clear skies through the night tonight, light winds, and dry air in place our Friday morning will also get off a cool start with 40s to low 50s for overnight lows.  A return to southerly winds during the day together with plenty of sunshine should push our daytime highs into the low 80s for the first time since the severe weather outbreak of last week.

Those southerly winds will become rather gusty going through the weekend and into early next week.  That means moisture will eventually return which in turn means warmer, more humid conditions as you can see on our forecast page.  The southerly winds and increasing moisture will make the biggest difference in our overnight lows with 60s expected by Sunday morning and going into next week.  Daytime highs will vary from day to day depending on cloud cover and the increasing moisture will also bring chances of showers/storms back to the forecast.

A storm system aloft will be moving into the Southern Rockies and then rather slowly out into the Plains over the coming week.  That system will produce at least a chance of showers/storms for far W OK on Saturday, but that activity is expected to stay well west of I-35.  Mother’s Day will be a different story as you can see there is a possibility of severe weather by late in the day or that night here in E OK.  Everything will be shifting further eastward on Sunday, but once again the more likely locations will be over the more central and western counties with any activity not expected to reach our side of the state till that evening or overnight.

[img]

The latest/greatest data runs continue to suggest that Monday will be a more active day for our side of the state as the storm center aloft will be moving more eastward and at the surface a dry-line looks to be setting up further eastward as well.  That will provide a focus for showers/storms to form closer to us and then move eastward.  Far too early to be any more specific regarding the exact nature of the severe threat and as stated before, the devil will be in the details.

That is currently expected to be followed by a break on Tuesday, but additional energy aloft drifting our way in the following days could also keep us in a rather active weather pattern through the end of the week. So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot