We’re still under the influence of unseasonably cool air this morning and today with highs this afternoon near 70. A weak system will brush far western OK this afternoon and evening. A mild mid-week weather pattern will persist before things revert to a normal May forecast with gusty south winds and increasing thunderstorm chances for the 2nd half of the weekend into early next week. Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid-40s across northeastern OK this morning.
The main upper level flow will keep a broad trough located across the northeastern U.S. and extending westward to near the central plains. A weak disturbance located across the Nebraska area this morning will slide southward today and arrive across western OK this afternoon. Limited low level moisture and mid-level moisture will result in a low chance of showers or storms for eastern OK while locations closer to the upper air disturbance will have a better chance of some light amounts. Just enough instability exists for a few lightning strikes. And the cold air aloft across the western half of the state may be just enough to produce some very small ice pellets-hail with the stronger updrafts. The cloud bases should be relatively high. Again, I anticipate this will stay west of our region of interest. We’ll not carry any pops for eastern OK even though a sprinkle or small shower may occur to the west of the metro later today.
After tonight, a surface ridge and mid-level ridge of high pressure will be the dominate feature across the state for a few days. This means mostly clear sky and smooth sailing. Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s Wednesday and Thursday will move into the upper 50s and lower 60s Friday and this weekend as south winds return Friday in advance of our next storm system. Highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday into the weekend.
Saturday the next upper level system across the western half of the nation will begin drawing closer to the state. In response, the pressure will fall across southeastern Colorado helping to develop an area of low pressure in this general region. South winds will return Friday and increase speeds Saturday through Sunday as low level moisture will begin streaming back across Texas into Oklahoma. As this process occurs we may see a few scattered showers or storms developing and moving across the areas Sunday with highs in the lower 80s.
Monday through Wednesday this upper level system will be near the state with active weather unfolding in the form of thunderstorm chances. While we don’t know the specifics regarding exact positioning of surface features, the climatological pattern would suggest a chance of severe storms for the southern plains. The model consensus would bring the surface cold front across the area Wednesday with dry and stable air following for the rest of the following week. But let’s take them one at a time. Enjoy the nice break we’ll experience for the next few days.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.