Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Tracking A Cold Front

Monday, April 11th 2016, 3:59 am
By: Alan Crone

A cold front will move across the state today with a continued chance of showers and storms across portions of the state. Additional severe thunderstorm chances are likely later this afternoon across far southeastern and east central OK.     

Calm and dry weather will reside through the middle of the week with another strong looking storm system nearing the southern plains for the 2nd half of next weekend.   Some storms this morning may continue to produce severe weather including strong wind gusts.  

The tornado threat may increase this afternoon and early evening across far southeastern OK and northeast TX.

Due to the on-going nature of strong to severe thunderstorms across the area this morning, I’ll be brief. This brief post will focus on the next few hours into the afternoon.  Additional watches and warnings are possible later this afternoon across the far southern sections of the state. 

A southern stream disturbance is ejecting eastward across the state this morning.  A surface low has developed and is dropping basically from the west to southeast across the state today and will be positioned across far southeastern OK and northeast TX by late this afternoon.   

A cold front is positioned across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma this morning and will move southward during the next few hours. Scattered storms may occur in two distinct areas this morning. One area would be along and north of the southward advancing cold front. These will tend to be elevated and should not produce severe weather this morning across far northern OK or southern Kansas.   

A few surface based storms may still yet occur across the southeastern OK and east central OK area early this morning, but the odds will be low.   These could produce severe hail and damaging winds.  

By this afternoon the cold front will be positioned across the I-40 region with additional storm chances confined to the southern third of the state   A few post-frontal showers are still possible across northern OK or southern Kansas, but these would not be severe.  A very unstable air mass with ample convective energy is expected across southeastern OK and northeastern TX.    

A small area of surface winds will be backing into the surface low across southeastern OK and this may enhance the tornado threat for a few hours across the Red River Valley counties.   

Once the cold front passes the threat for significant severe weather will cease but some storms may persist for a few hours longer.   Most if not all of the active weather will exit the state later this evening with improving conditions for most of the week.  A weak disturbance may bring a few showers across southern OK Tuesday night into Wednesday but this chance appears too low to mention in the 7-day planner at this point other than some brief sprinkles Wednesday morning.

The next system will be nearing this weekend but the exact timing and location will remain fluid.   Our forecast will support storm chances ramping up by Sunday and the pattern will support a severe weather threat.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day, but please remain aware of your weather surroundings this morning and this afternoon.

Alan Crone