Storm chances will remain in the forecast beginning later tonight and continuing through Wednesday evening as a strong upper level system will influence the area. A dry line will develop across western OK Wednesday and move eastward during the afternoon and evening with strong to severe thunderstorms a possibility across central and eastern OK. All modes of severe weather will be possible. A cold front will sweep across the area late Wednesday night into pre-dawn Thursday bringing dry, cool, and stable air back to the state. The fire danger will be elevated this afternoon across eastern OK due to the influence of increasing winds and the gradient between dry air east and the arriving moist air to the southwest.
Temperatures are in the mid and upper 40s this morning along with increasing south winds. This process with stronger south winds later today will continue to pump low level moisture back into the area even though it appears the moisture will take a western route ( along I-35 or west) this afternoon. As this continues a few showers or storms will be possible later this evening into Wednesday morning. Then model data diverges. But there will remain a possibility of storms developing Wednesday morning across North TX and southern OK. A few could migrate into northeastern OK during the morning hours. A few of the early Wednesday morning storms may be strong to near severe with hail. These storms should be slightly elevated which would limit any significant severe potential regarding tornadoes.
Wednesday afternoon the dry line will move across western OK and approach the I-35 corridor around early afternoon. The morning showers and storms will more than likely have moved into northeast TX or southwestern Arkansas by midday to afternoon. This should leave part of eastern OK available to recover from the early morning southern convection. As the dry line approaches the upper level trough pivots energy across the state, storms will develop, scattered in nature, across southeastern Kansas into part of northeastern OK. The anticipated wind profile would allow for rotating updrafts which would support large hail and possibly a tornado or two but the impact of the morning convection to our south may offset this potential in some locations. We’ll be watching closely tomorrow as the “ mesoscale features” begin to highlight the severe possibilities. The entire system should be exiting far eastern and southeastern OK around midnight to 2am as the cold front catches up with the dry line and brings the dry air across the area.
Our pattern Thursday through the weekend looks dry and cool with morning lows in the 3os and 40s and afternoon highs in the 60s Thursday and Friday. A warming trend will begin Sunday with highs in the mid-70s and will continue with 80s early next week.
Thanks for reading the abbreviated version of the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!