Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Late Week Cooler Air, Rain Chances

Wednesday, March 16th 2016, 4:07 am
By: Alan Crone

Pleasant temperatures will remain today but will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. The forecast remains challenging regarding some very specific small scale disturbances that could impact the southern plains during the next few days.   But the overall pattern and set-up would keep the main focus upon Friday with a chance for some light precipitation across the area along with cooler air Friday into Saturday.    Some data suggest some clouds are possible later today across southern Kansas and a chance for a few showers across far southern OK and north TX late tonight into Wednesday morning.   We can’t totally rule out both of these scenarios but the chances will remain too low to mention at this point in the big 7 day planner.   Highs this afternoon will remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s along with west to northwest winds at 10 to 15 mph.  

The data has been consistently inconsistent regarding precipitation output for the Friday period across the southern plains.   A few of the runs will be totally dry while others will be more wet and now even the 12kNAM is showing some higher rainfall potential for part of northern OK Friday.    But the amount of available precipitation currently over the area doesn’t appear very high, and the odds of increasing this moisture will remain low.   We’re going to keep our Friday forecast intact with a chance of some light showers and highs in the 50s.   The quick nature of this wave would also mean any potential precipitation should exit the area quickly Saturday morning with morning lows in the 30s and highs in the mid-50s.   There will be a possibility of some locations near or slightly below freezing Sunday morning across part of northern OK. 

The pattern will quickly return to south and southwest winds Sunday into Monday with some fire danger issues returning Monday afternoon with highs in the 70s.   Another strong looking disturbance will brush the central plains Tuesday into Wednesday and eventually drag a cold front across the state.   But the question of potential low level moisture will remain.   Most of the moisture will more than likely be located across extreme eastern OK and Arkansas where the higher chances for storms would reside.   But before we get into the middle of next week, we need to get through the end of this one.  

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!
Alan Crone