Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Increasing Fire Danger

Tuesday, March 15th 2016, 4:19 am

Good morning. A cold front is moving across Northern Oklahoma this morning and will bring gusty Northwest winds back to the area for the majority of the day.   Despite recent rainfall, the fire danger is increasing today across portions of Northern Oklahoma.   Our friends at the National Weather Service will issue a Red Flag Warning for a few counties across the northern third of the area.   This means wild fires that do start this afternoon would spread very rapidly across those areas.   Even though your specific area may not be officially included in a Red Flag Warning, the fire danger remains elevated to near critical this afternoon. Please use caution.

Red Flag Fire Warning

The cold front will not produce precipitation today across the state due to the lack of deep moisture across eastern OK but a few clouds will be possible this morning as the boundary moves southward.   Another week boundary may quickly move southward Wednesday and could provide the lift needed for a few showers across extreme Southeastern Oklahoma Wednesday night. The higher probability for any showers or storms would be located across Northeast Texas in the Arklatex region.

The upper air flow will quickly bring a disturbance near the region Friday and Saturday. Computer model data continue to have big differences regarding the outcome for Friday night into Saturday morning. The GFS model has trended toward a lower precipitation forecast (almost zero) while the Euro model continues to support a much higher likelihood of light precipitation Friday.   Some light precipitation is possible Friday morning across the western part of the state with additional rainfall located across the Red River Valley by the afternoon.  Using the EURO as a guide, light precipitation would spread East work during the day and approached Northern Oklahoma Friday afternoon or evening.    Temps during the day Friday would be into the lower or possibly the mid-fifties. Temperatures could drop into the upper 30s late Friday night into Saturday morning across Northern Oklahoma with some light precipitation underway. The system would quickly exit Eastern Oklahoma Saturday morning with temperatures moving into the lower or mid-50s by afternoon. Sunday into early next week appears pleasant with Sunday highs in the mid-60s and Monday back into the 70s.  A strong looking system will be nearing the state around th middle of next week with at least a mention of thunderstorms across eastern OK.   The better chances may still reside into Arkansas.

Temperatures today will continue to be warm and above the seasonal average with many locations topping out in the mid or upper 70s. Morning temperatures will be in the upper 30s or lower 40s Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs Wednesday in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Alan Crone