Alan Crone's Weather Blog: More Rain Soon

Friday, March 11th 2016, 4:13 am
By: Alan Crone

A couple of random highlights.   Most of spring-break looks good.    The main low over Mexico will start moving northward this morning.   The up-stream kicker, still way out in the pacific, will be enter the coast later tonight or early Saturday.   The rain makes a comeback today, more so tonight.   And the air aloft will become colder as the trough approaches.   This means thunder will be back into the mix for the next two days.   The severe weather threat appears very low this weekend but not exactly zero from a shear perspective for extreme eastern OK Sunday afternoon.   Now…let’s start from the beginning.

WARN Interactive Radar

Weather Alerts

Rain with embedded thunder will start migrating northward into north-central Texas early this morning with some showers expanding into southern OK.   This activity will slowly move north and possibly northwest by later today.   Odds will support most of northeastern OK remaining dry for most of the morning to midday while southeastern sections may see some showers.  But…of course…there’s already a small area of showers west of the metro as I post this morning.   This appears to be around the deformation zone.  

About early afternoon the precipitation shield will extend closer into the metro with the highest chances from approximately 4pm through the evening.   Some thunder may be possible but no severe weather will occur.   Saturday morning some scattered showers or storms will be possible for a few hours but should move east or northeast of the region by midday.  Later Saturday evening a few additional showers or storms will be possible across eastern OK.   So Saturday has an early morning pop and a late evening chance.    But we’re still not finished with the precipitation chances.

The above mentioned upstream kicker will be rapidly nearing Oklahoma Sunday morning.   This feature, at least in the model data, will be a fairly strong and compact upper level low.   As it approaches western OK a surface area of low pressure will quickly develop and move generally eastward into eastern OK by Sunday afternoon.   Data this morning keeps a 1004 low around Durant to Bonham by midday Sunday.  Scattered storms will be possible ahead of this feature, beginning Sunday midday to afternoon.   The actual chance will remain around 30% for the Sunday system.   The wind shear profiles Sunday (turning of wind with height-increasing speeds with height) would support thunderstorm activity but the instability factor is expected to remain low.   The potential convective energy may be higher across far southeastern OK and northeastern TX by Sunday afternoon.    At this point, I would think any severe threats would remain to the southeast of the immediate area.   We’ll need to watch the data closely this weekend for any increase in low level moisture ahead of the kicker.  

Monday into Tuesday the forecast will be focused on a nice temperature warm-up with lows in the 50s and highs near 82 Monday.   Tuesday another fast moving upper level wave will near the state and but the chance for a few showers or storms will remain near or east of the area.   Tuesday surface winds may be from the at 20 to 30 mph.   The fire danger will be enhanced during this period.   

The data does go separate ways for the end of next week.   I’ll resist the urge to dwell too much, but the GFS features a significant cold snap by late next week while the EURO is not as chilly.   Both sets bring rain-or storms back into the area late Thursday night into Friday.   We’ll cross that bridge sometime early next week.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone