The sky temporarily cleared out late last night and this allowed dense fog to develop this morning across part of eastern OK. As rain approaches southern OK this morning, additional mid and high level clouds will arrive and the fog will eventually lift to reveal cloudy conditions.
The next few days will continue to focus on a powerful upper level low located across Mexico as it eventually exits the southern plains Saturday into Sunday. Before this system leaves our region, some additional rain activity will remain likely across at least southeastern and far eastern OK today and tonight. The Tulsa metro will remain on the far northwestern edge of this rain chance today, but we’ll need to keep the chances in the metro. I’ll probably go with a 40 to 50% pop. A flood watch will remain underway for part of extreme southern and east central OK today into Thursday but the Tulsa metro is not included in this watch. Again, the higher chances for rain will be near or southeast of the I-44 region with much lower, maybe no rain, to the northwest of this line.
A slow moving cold front will near the metro this morning and pass into southeastern and east central OK this afternoon before stalling. Locations along and south of the boundary will have the best chance for heavy rainfall as the upper air flow will parallel the surface feature. Highs today should move into the mid and upper 60s along with northeast winds developing around 10 to 15 mph. Locations across extreme southeastern OK may stay a few degrees cooler with a higher rain chance and east or southeast winds for most of the day.
Thursday will feature mostly to partly cloudy conditions with lows in the 50s and highs in the mid-60s along with northeast winds. The broad Mexico low will be ejecting into the central Texas area Thursday night. A surface area of low pressure will also begin lifting northeast. This should bring additional showers back to part of northeastern OK late Thursday into Friday. This period will feature a slightly higher chance of showers into Friday with the Tulsa pop around 80%.
Saturday morning the storm system will be finally lifting across part of eastern OK but some additional showers may be likely for the first part of the day. The data has not been consistent regarding the areal coverage but we have continued to keep only low chances in the forecast. EURO and GFS data are now both suggesting a fast moving secondary upper level, compact low, will quickly move across the state Sunday morning. The lack of significant low level moisture may keep the rain chances to around a 10% mention for a few hours and mainly across far southeastern OK. After this low moves east the clouds will clear and the temperatures will rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s Sunday afternoon with a return of sunshine and southwest winds.
Most data support some upper 70s and lower 80s early next week along with south winds through Wednesday. We may have another robust storm system nearing the area by the middle to end of next week with additional thunderstorm chances in the region.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!