Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Warmer, Enhanced Fire Danger Friday, Saturday

It was nighty nice day today, as you can see on the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Those daytime highs are nearly 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year despite the colder than normal start to our day.

The clear skies, dry air, and calm winds helped to allow temperatures to drop off for the overnight hours. Sunshine and a light SW wind component helped to warm things up quickly during the day.

We will have clear skies again tonight and lots of sunshine for the days ahead, but those westerly winds are not expected to go completely calm tonight, and that should keep temperatures from totally bottoming out. As a result, morning lows at or just below freezing are expected.

A weak boundary will be moving across the state during the day Thursday, shifting our winds to a more W or even NW direction. Wind speeds will be generally light and will keep dry air in place, but not cooler air. In fact, look for Thursday afternoon to be even warmer than today with most of us at or above 60.

That boundary will quickly become diffuse and gusty southerly winds will return for Friday. That means even warmer temperatures with morning lows in the upper 30s and daytime highs well into the 60s to near 70 for some locations. Unfortunately, the gusty winds, warm temperatures, dormant vegetation, and relative humidity levels dropping into the 30% range will also create an enhanced fire danger situation.

As you can see on our forecast page, more of the same is expected again Saturday with much above normal temperatures, gusty southerly winds, and an enhanced fire danger. Warm as we will be though, we are not currently expecting to see any records established.

Another weak boundary will move into the state on Sunday. This system will also be dry and will not amount to much more than a wind shift with a S wind shifting back to a more NE component during the day; that will knock temperatures back some, but still warmer than normal for this time of year.

That boundary will also become diffuse as we go into the day Monday with a light NE wind and cooler conditions that morning followed by gusty SE winds and another very warm, windy day that afternoon. This will be in advance of a much stronger storm system that will be pushing a strong cold front through the state Monday night. Showers and perhaps even some storms will be possible with the front itself, although moisture currently looks to be somewhat limited for the Monday night time frame.

Temperatures will, at best, struggle to hold steady and will most likely be falling during the day Tuesday along with gusty northerly winds. As the colder air arrives at the surface and aloft, cannot rule out some snow, primarily over the more northern counties. Present guidance suggests amounts will be light, but that is certainly subject to change.

At least the longer range guidance is starting to come to a little better agreement regarding the timing and intensity. The main question mark at this point is the amount of available moisture as the colder air surges southward. At any rate, the 7-day QPF map continues to keep our state with light precipitation amounts through this forecast cycle.

That will be followed by much cooler conditions for several days, although temperatures should try to rebound going into that following weekend. Notice on the 8-14-day graphics that temperatures are expected to be trending at or perhaps a bit below normal over that time frame along with a return to a more stable pattern.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot