Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Colder, Chance Of Wintry Precipitation

A glance at the max/min temperature map for today suggests a very pleasant January day as our normal daytime highs at this time of year would be in the upper 40s. But, the next map shows the 24 hour temperature change from yesterday as of mid-afternoon and compared to the relatively balmy conditions we had on Thursday, today was certainly much cooler.

The weekend will be cooler, yet, with below normal temperatures expected well into the coming week for that matter. The brisk NW winds of today started the cooling trend and a more northerly wind for tonight and through the day Saturday will keep temperatures much cooler.

We will also have mostly cloudy skies for tonight and to start the day Saturday, and, along with those clouds will be a chance of light snow for some locations. We may see a few snowflakes around the Tulsa area, but, as you can see on the projected snowfall map, anything measurable is expected to be primarily well to the S and SW of our area. This snow will be confined to the late night and early morning hours followed by at least some sunshine by afternoon.

However, despite what sun we do get to see, temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30s during the afternoon hours with daytime highs generally in the 30s to near 40. Sunday will be colder, yet, as you can see on our forecast page, with daytime highs only near 40 at best, and that most likely around the middle part of the day.

A return to light southerly winds to start the day Sunday will see a change to gusty N winds that afternoon as a surge of even colder air arrives. This will bring falling temperatures Sunday afternoon and may even squeeze out some light snow or flurries over the more northern counties that night - anything that falls will be very light though.

Monday morning looks to be the coldest of this forecast cycle with temperatures bottoming out in the teens for most locations. At least the winds will be lighter and we expected to see at least some afternoon sunshine helping to bring daytime highs at least above the freezing mark.

Temperatures will be generally moderating through the middle of the week, but a stronger storm system aloft looks to be looming on the horizon. The longer range guidance has been very inconsistent with lots of run to run and model to model variability creating additional uncertainty regarding its timing/strength/path and impacts on our weather.

For now, will take a conservative approach until the data runs exhibit more consistency and go with only scattered showers starting Tuesday night or Wednesday and extending through Thursday and perhaps even beyond that - cannot rule out some wintry weather involved in this system as well.

After that, the preliminary outlook going into next weekend looks more pleasant for a change considering how our recent weekends have been. We should be between systems with southerly winds and milder temperatures currently anticipated. Beyond that time frame, the 8-14-day outlooks continue to suggest temperatures averaging above normal and a more stable weather pattern going into the last week of the month.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot