Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Wintry Mix Moves Across NE Oklahoma

The first disturbance of three is lifting out across northern OK into southeastern Kansas this morning with an area of wintry mix underway.    Winter weather advisory is underway for a small area of northern OK this morning for the possibility of slick roadways, in some locations, across far northern OK.  By the time most folks read this post the wave will be too far removed from the state to influence us with rain chances.   The 2nd and stronger system is quickly on its heels and will enter the area tonight with increasing rain chances into Thursday morning.   The triplet will enter the area sometime Friday night into Saturday with a slight chance of snow showers.   Much colder air will be likely this weekend into early next week, possibly the coldest air of the season to date Sunday into Monday, with lows Monday morning in the mid-teens.  Highs Sunday may stay in the upper 20s with Monday’s highs in the upper 20s or lower 30s. 

WARN Interactive Radar

Temperatures early this morning have basically bottomed-out in the mid-30s with a few spots around the freezing mark.    South to southeast winds remain in the 10 to 15 mph range as an area of low pressure continues to deepen to our northwest.   The first short wave has brought some light precipitation (mix) across the area this morning but a number of locations will remain dry across eastern OK.   The upper air soundings from last night confirmed the model soundings that indicated a pocket of dry air in the lower part of the atmosphere.   This means our surface temps have dropped few degrees as the moisture has fallen through the cloud layer into the surface area and allowed some sleet to develop in some areas northwest of the metro.   This effect is known as “ wet bulbing”.   We’ve seen some light snow-sleet in the metro earlier this morning but the bulk of the precip has been northwest and north.

We’ll get a break around 10am to noon, it not sooner, as the lead wave ejects to the northeast.    Temperatures will remain in the lower 40s today along with south to southeast winds at 10 to 15 mph.

About 5pm to 7pm tonight rain will move into the eastern third of the state, including the Tulsa metro, and will continue across eastern OK into early Thursday.   The temperature profile ( top down) will not support any wintry precip according to model soundings.   The Thursday morning lows in the lower 40s may rebound into the lower 50s with south winds at 10 to 15 mph later Thursday afternoon.    The clouds will more than likely remain.

Friday starts in the lower 40s and ends in the 50s north and possibly warmer south, but a strong cold front will move across the area sometime Friday midday to afternoon bringing a wind shift from the northwest.   Much colder air will follow late Friday night into Saturday.    A short wave will impact the state behind the frontal passage and should result in some light snow shower activity in some locations either late Friday night or Saturday morning to midday.    It’s too early to offer any snow forecast with confidence for Saturday, but this does not appear to be a major event yet some light accumulations will be possible.   I think the bigger issue will be the cold air that rolls across the area.    This modified arctic air will remain into early next week as a 1030 mb surface ridge builds directly over northern OK late Sunday night into Monday morning.    This means some very cold air will be likely during these periods. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Precip chances:   Light showers-mix this morning far northern OK till 10am or so.    Rain likely beginning this evening across eastern OK lasting overnight and ending Thursday morning.  

Have a great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV