Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Coldest Air This Season Headed Our Way

Another chilly day today as is evident from the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. For perspective, keep in mind that the normal max/min for Tulsa at this time of year is 47/28.

At least our winds have returned to a more S/SE direction which, together with cloudy skies, will help keep temperatures from bottoming out tonight. In fact, most of us should stay just above the freezing mark for the overnight hours with the possible exception of the more northern counties.

However, there will also be some energy aloft moving over the state, which is producing the cloud cover and will also try to wring out some precipitation. The vertical profile of temperature and moisture suggests a narrow window of opportunity for a wintry mix over the more northern counties for late tonight.

As the precipitation aloft falls through drier low-level air there will be some evaporative cooling take place and thus the potential for some very light sleet or perhaps some snow. Anything that does fall will be very light, so no travel impacts are anticipated - with the possible exception of elevated surfaces – and, again, this would be over the more northern counties.

Brisk southerly winds should moderate temperatures above the freezing mark quickly during the morning hours, even in those areas that do get a brief wintry mix. As the rest of the day wears on, we will keep overcast skies with a chance of some drizzle or a brief very light shower and temperatures should reach the lower 40s so it will be a rather dreary day.

Cloudy skies and brisk southerly winds will keep temperatures near 40 for Wed night and to start the day Thursday. Despite cloudy skies, we should make it into the low 50s that afternoon.

Light rain and showers for the overnight hours and into the day will be shifting more eastward as the day wears on. At least it will all be liquid and amounts again should be fairly light. In fact, as you can see on the 7-day QPF map, heavier rains are expected further eastward into Arkansas as we are basically on the western fringe of those heavier amounts.

Right now, it looks like Friday will be between systems with only a slight chance of a shower or two and primarily over the more southern counties. However, a stronger cold front will be arriving late in the day, shifting our winds back to a northerly direction. As you can see on our forecast page, this will be followed by what will be our coldest air of the season for the coming weekend and extending into early next week.

There will also be some energy aloft moving overhead, but current indications suggest those systems will be relatively weak and will not have much to work with; even so, will have to carry at least a chance of snow for the Saturday and perhaps into the Sunday time frame. Keep in mind, the systems we are dealing with are out in the Pacific Ocean right now, so there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the ultimate strength, timing, and track, so advise keeping a close eye on the weather in case conditions change significantly with subsequent data runs.

Looking further down the road, the 6-10-day outlooks keep the colder air over a large part of the country for one of the few times this season. Also, the more active precipitation pattern looks to remain well west of us during that time frame.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates. 

Dick Faurot