Wintry Weather Goes Missing as Christmas Approaches

As the waters recede after a very soggy weekend, our temperatures on this Tuesday afternoon are soaring yet again. It feels more like October (or April depending on your seasonal preference) with temperatures 20° above normal. That along with our 4-day streak above 70° certainly points to the lack of Arctic air nearby. It’s a trend seen especially in the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. thanks to a progressive jet stream pattern that holds the air of polar origin… up near the North Pole. A little bit of that cold air will spill south into our region in the coming days, but this fast-moving pattern will bring back the unseasonable warmth sooner rather than later.

                In the near-term a cold front will sweep away this very mild air.  We’ll see temperatures a good 15° to 20° cooler on Wednesday. By Thursday, a reinforcement of that colder air arrives sending our highs into the 40s. Believe it or not, that’s about where our highs average out this time of year.  That wave on Thursday might just be potent enough to squeeze out a few sprinkles or (dare I say) flurries. With temperatures above freezing however, there shouldn’t be any impact if precipitation actually does occur.

                The pattern moves along and by the weekend, south winds are funneling back the warmth. Highs will crest 60° again by Sunday ahead of another fast-moving storm system. The speed of these systems doesn’t allow for much moisture return and thus, unlike the past storm, the lack of moisture will keep our rain chances pretty low. That storm system is of Pacific Ocean origins and will not have any substantial cold air with it.  Thus, early next week, our temperatures likely remain above normal.

                That brings us to the all-important travel days before Christmas. While forecasts this far out, especially this time of year, are notoriously hard to pin down, there are strong indications by the prevailing jet stream pattern that mild air will be with us. The Climate Prediction Center is on-board with this notion given their 8 to 14 Day Outlook over that time frame.  Unless you will be in the Rockies or westward, the chances of seeing wintry weather by Christmas Day are slim.

                While a White Christmas (1” of snow on the ground Christmas morning) is already a fairly rare event in Oklahoma (see the attached map for percentages of occurrence through the U.S.), the chances may be even lower this year. We won’t be alone however. With the storm track shunting wintry weather out west to the northeast across the Northern Plains into Canada through next week, there will be hardly any opportunities for snow even in the normally frozen over Great Lakes and New England states. For Tulsa, that’ll probably drop our chance of a White Christmas from our usual 10% chance to a ~5% chance. I leave a chance in there, however, because we will be in an active weather pattern with above-normal precipitation likely. If one of those fast-moving storm systems latches on to just enough cold air and takes a more southern route, we could be in line for a little wintry weather. A few model runs have shown that, but don’t get too excited: I’ve attached the latest EURO model projection for high temperatures on Christmas Eve.  It’s more likely to be a balmy one rather than one blanketed in snow.

                We can blame El Niño once again for this unusual pattern. As cold air continues to build up north, we’ll likely see some of it coming to Oklahoma. It will just take a jet stream re-arrangement for that to happen, which may not occur again until the end of this year or even into January. Either way, it’s a very interesting start to meteorological winter so far. When it’s wet, it’s very wet. When it’s warm, it’s very warm.  This active pattern will keep us on our toes all season long, even if Santa leaves that wintry weather at home this Christmas.

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