Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Morning Showers & Cooler Temps

Thursday, October 1st 2015, 4:10 am
By: Alan Crone

Another weak disturbance is creating some rain this morning to our west.   This morning’s activity is slightly closer to the Tulsa metro this morning and may impact portions of Tulsa County through the morning hours.   The higher coverage will remain slightly west for the morning to midday hours.   This activity matches up well with the 4KNAM output from the last two days. 

WARN Interactive Radar

Temperatures remain cool with many locations in the lower 50s.   Daytime highs are expected to move into the lower 70s today with morning clouds and partly sunny conditions this afternoon.   Another surge of cooler air is expected later tonight and Friday bringing morning lows into the upper 40s.   Friday afternoon highs may stay around the upper 60s near 70 in northern Ok and into the lower 70s across the south.   This weekend continues to trend mainly dry now after having a decent chance of rain in the forecast for this period earlier this week.

This weekend a mid-level ridge is expected to be strong enough to keep most, if not all, of the weekend rain either west or north of our immediate area.   We will keep some low chances in the forecast Saturday but the odds are now very low.   The main upper level trough is located across the west coast this morning and should eject across the inter-mountain region during the next 36 to 48 hours.   A small piece of energy will round the base of this trough and produce some showers and storms across the high plains of Texas into far northwestern OK.   As this activity moves eastward Saturday morning, the trend should be for the precip to weaken as it encounters the impact of the mid-level ridge.  

Temperatures this weekend have been adjusted slightly to account for the lack of precipitation across the area.   This means the morning lows have been dropped into the upper 40s with Saturday afternoon high near 68 and the Sunday high around 70.   North winds should remain in the 10 to 15 mph range throughout the weekend.

Next week the upper air pattern will change again allowing a return of a southerly surface flow.   Monday and Tuesday will feature lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s respectively with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s.   Stronger south winds will return Tuesday and Wednesday in advance of a strong looking system that may provide some thunderstorms for the middle of next week.  

Alan Crone